大越期货菜粕早报-20250701

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 will fluctuate in the range of 2540 - 2600. It is affected by factors such as soybean meal trends, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate within the range after a brief rise and fall [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate between 2540 and 2600. It is currently in a short - term, slightly strong oscillation. The impact of the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is limited, and the price will return to the range oscillation [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market. Canadian rapeseed annual production decreased slightly, and China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing. Global rapeseed production decreased slightly this year, mainly due to reduced EU production and lower - than - expected Canadian output. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and global geopolitical conflicts may rise, supporting commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June, and uncertainties in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. Rapeseed meal demand is in the seasonal off - season [13]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and basis: The spot price is 2500, with a basis of - 72, indicating a discount to the futures. The rapeseed meal futures and spot prices have declined slightly, with the spot discount remaining at a relatively high level. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has slightly narrowed, and the price difference of the 2509 contract has remained oscillating [9][16][20]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.1 million tons, up 8.91% week - on - week from last week's 1.01 million tons and down 65.63% year - on - year compared to 3.2 million tons in the same period last year. Oil mill rapeseed inventory has continued to decline, and rapeseed meal inventory has fallen to a low level [9]. - Supply and demand balance: The report provides domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory [25][26]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions have increased, but the funds have flowed out [9].