Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views For Soybean Meal - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern. The US soybean production area weather has uncertainties, supporting the bottom of the soybean meal market, but factors like South American soybean harvest and more imported Brazilian soybeans limit the upside. The M2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 2920 and 2980 [8]. For Soybeans - The domestic soybean market is also in a range - bound situation. Cost support and domestic demand support the bottom, while South American soybean harvest and domestic production increase limit the upside. The A2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 4100 and 4200 [10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The report provides detailed views and strategies for soybean meal and soybeans, including fundamental analysis, basis, inventory, and expected price ranges [8][10]. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations have short - term positive effects on US soybeans, but good weather in the US soybean planting area has led to a short - term decline in the US soybean market. The domestic imported soybean arrival volume reached a high in June, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories have increased. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, and the market is in a weak and volatile pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors include slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low domestic soybean meal inventory, and uncertain weather in the US soybean production area. Bearish factors are high imported soybean arrival volume in June and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors are cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand. Bearish factors are the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - The report presents data on the supply - demand balance of global and domestic soybeans, including harvest area, yield, inventory, and consumption over the years [31][32]. - It also shows the planting and growth progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina, including planting rate, emergence rate, flowering rate, etc. [33][34][35]. 5. Position Data - No specific position data analysis is provided in the summary part, but it mentions that the main long positions in soybean meal have increased while funds have flowed out [8].
大越期货豆粕早报-20250701
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-01 03:05