Group 1: Oil and Fat Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - Palm oil: With concerns about month - end inventory growth, the Malaysian crude palm oil futures may face downward pressure to seek support around 3,800 ringgit. In China, Dalian palm oil futures may seek support at the annual line of 8,200 yuan [2]. - Soybean oil: Weak crude oil reduces the attractiveness of soybean oil as a biodiesel raw material. Abundant rainfall in US soybean - growing areas and high - yield expectations put pressure on CBOT soybeans and soy oil. In China, downstream demand is weak, and soybean oil inventory is expected to increase [2]. Summary by Directory - Price Changes: From June 27 to June 30, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil decreased by 50 yuan to 8,240 yuan, a decline of 0.60%; the futures price of Y2509 decreased by 18 yuan to 7,984 yuan, a decline of 0.22%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil decreased by 100 yuan to 8,400 yuan, a decline of 1.18%; the futures price of P2509 decreased by 46 yuan to 8,330 yuan, a decline of 0.55%. The spot price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil decreased by 70 yuan, a decline of 0.73%; the futures price of 01509 decreased by 51 yuan to 9,415 yuan, a decline of 0.54% [2]. - Basis and Spread: The basis of Y2509 decreased by 32 yuan to 256 yuan, a decline of 11.11%; the basis of P2509 decreased by 54 yuan to 70 yuan, a decline of 43.55%; the basis of 01509 decreased by 19 yuan, a decline of 10.33%. The soybean - palm oil spot spread increased by 50 yuan to - 160 yuan, an increase of 23.81%; the 2509 spread increased by 28 yuan to - 346 yuan, an increase of 7.49% [2]. Group 2: Sugar Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The increase in the ethanol blending ratio in Brazilian gasoline supports a slight rebound in raw sugar prices, but the global supply surplus limits the rebound height, and raw sugar is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern. In China, the market sentiment has improved, and the bullish sentiment may last for some time. Considering the expected increase in imports, the domestic supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and a bearish view is maintained after the rebound [5]. Summary by Directory - Price Changes: From the previous value, the futures price of sugar 2601 increased by 28 yuan to 5,628 yuan, an increase of 0.50%; the futures price of sugar 2509 increased by 15 yuan to 5,807 yuan, an increase of 0.26%. The price of ICE raw sugar decreased by 0.50 cents to 16.19 cents per pound, a decline of 3.00% [5]. - Industry Situation: The cumulative national sugar production reached 1,116.21 tons, an increase of 119.89 tons or 12.03% year - on - year; the cumulative national sugar sales reached 811.38 tons, an increase of 152.10 tons or 23.07% year - on - year. The national industrial sugar inventory decreased by 32.21 tons to 304.83 tons, a decline of 9.56% [5]. Group 3: Cotton Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The contradiction of tight old - crop cotton inventory in the upstream supply cannot be resolved in the short term, but the long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. The downstream industry continues to weaken, with increasing finished - product inventory. The driving force for cotton price increases is insufficient, and the cotton price is expected to remain in a range - bound pattern [6]. Summary by Directory - Price Changes: From the previous value, the futures price of cotton 2509 decreased by 20 yuan to 13,740 yuan, a decline of 0.15%; the futures price of cotton 2601 decreased by 5 yuan to 13,760 yuan, a decline of 0.04%. The price of ICE US cotton decreased by 1.28 cents to 68.04 cents per pound, a decline of 1.85% [6]. - Industry Situation: The industrial cotton inventory decreased by 1.10 tons to 93.01 tons, a decline of 1.2%; the cotton import volume decreased by 2.00 tons to 4.00 tons, a decline of 33.3%. The yarn inventory days increased by 1.52 days to 23.86 days, an increase of 6.8%; the grey - fabric inventory days increased by 2.57 days to 35.46 days, an increase of 7.8% [6]. Group 4: Egg Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The national egg supply is sufficient, the demand is average, and downstream purchasers are cautious. Egg prices are expected to remain stable first, decline slightly in the short term, and then stabilize [8]. Summary by Directory - Price Changes: The futures price of the egg 09 contract increased by 16 yuan to 3,689 yuan per 500 kg, an increase of 0.44%; the futures price of the egg 07 contract increased by 18 yuan to 2,821 yuan per 500 kg, an increase of 0.64%. The egg - producing area price decreased by 0.14 yuan to 2.78 yuan per catty, a decline of 4.90% [7]. - Related Indicators: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks remained at 4.00 yuan per chick; the price of culled chickens increased by 0.18 yuan to 4.62 yuan per catty, an increase of 4.05%. The egg - feed ratio decreased by 0.09 to 2.24, a decline of 3.86% [7]. Group 5: Meal Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The US soybean planting area report had a neutral impact. The technical support for US soybeans has strengthened, and the Brazilian soybean market is boosted by the rising basis of August and September shipments. In China, the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is rising, the basis is stable, and the supply is expected to be high. The soybean meal trend is not yet clear, and there may be opportunities to go long at low prices [11]. Summary by Directory - Price Changes: The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal increased by 20 yuan to 2,840 yuan, an increase of 0.71%; the futures price of M2509 increased by 15 yuan to 2,961 yuan, an increase of 0.51%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal increased by 40 yuan to 2,470 yuan, an increase of 1.65%; the futures price of RM2509 increased by 13 yuan to 2,572 yuan, an increase of 0.51% [11]. - Spread and Ratio: The soybean meal 09 - 01 spread increased by 3 yuan to - 38 yuan, an increase of 7.32%; the rapeseed meal 09 - 01 spread increased by 2 yuan to 271 yuan, an increase of 0.74%. The oil - meal ratio of the spot decreased by 0.038 to 2.90, a decline of 1.30%; the oil - meal ratio of the main contract decreased by 0.020 to 2.70, a decline of 0.73% [11]. Group 6: Corn and Corn Starch Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The corn supply is tight, and the spot price is rising steadily. In the Northeast, the remaining grain is scarce, and traders are reluctant to sell. In North China, the corn arrival volume is low, and deep - processing enterprises are raising prices to purchase. Downstream demand is weak, but the wheat - corn price difference is shrinking, which limits the increase in corn prices. In the long term, the tight supply and increasing consumption support the upward movement of corn prices. A large - scale increase in imports is expected. The corn auction starts on July 1, and the overall trend is bullish [13][15]. Summary by Directory - Price Changes: The futures price of corn 2509 decreased by 6 yuan to 2,378 yuan, a decline of 0.25%; the futures price of corn starch 2509 decreased by 10 yuan to 2,733 yuan, a decline of 0.36% [13]. - Industry Situation: The number of vehicles remaining in the morning at Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased by 65 to 216, an increase of 43.05%. The corn starch inventory increased by 948 to 23,822, an increase of 4.14% [13]. Group 7: Pig Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price of pigs is still in a volatile structure. The enthusiasm of secondary fattening has declined, and the slaughter procurement difficulty has slightly increased. The current breeding profit is declining, and the market capacity expansion is cautious. The market expects a potential upward trend in July and August, but there may be a risk of price decline for the 09 contract near the delivery date if the inventory is postponed [16][17]. Summary by Directory - Price Changes: The futures price of live pigs 2507 increased by 225 yuan to 13,850 yuan, an increase of 1.65%; the futures price of live pigs 2509 decreased by 135 yuan to 13,870 yuan, a decline of 0.96% [16]. - Industry Situation: The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 376 to 140,739, a decline of 0.27%. The self - breeding profit per head increased by 30.9 yuan to 50 yuan, an increase of 159.02%; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding increased by 55.1 yuan to - 132 yuan, an increase of 29.49% [16].
《农产品》日报-20250701
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-07-01 03:14