广发早知道：特殊商品版-20250701

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The natural rubber market is expected to be weak due to increased supply and weakening demand, with short positions above 14,000 to be held [4][6]. - The polysilicon market faces a mismatch between weak demand and复产 expectations, with prices likely to be under pressure in July. Short positions should be held cautiously [7][8]. - The industrial silicon market may experience low - level fluctuations. Large - scale enterprise production cuts have driven up futures prices, but there are still uncertainties in demand and inventory [8][10]. - The soda ash market is again dominated by the surplus logic, and the glass market has weakened as spot sales have declined. High - level short positions in soda ash should be held, and the glass price is expected to fluctuate between 950 - 1050 [11][13]. 3. Summary by Variety Natural Rubber - Spot Prices: As of June 30, cup rubber was 48.05 (+0.90) Thai baht/kg, and latex was 56.00 (-1.00) Thai baht/kg. Yunnan glue acquisition price was 13,600 (0) yuan/ton, and Hainan fresh latex was 13,800 (0) yuan/ton [4]. - Tire Data: As of June 26, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.40%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.14 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, a week - on - week increase of 0.84 percentage points [4]. - Logic: Overseas supply is increasing, and some semi - steel tire enterprises are reducing production due to inventory pressure. The price is expected to be weak, and short positions above 14,000 should be held [6]. Polysilicon - Spot Prices: On June 30, the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 34,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of P - type cauliflower material was 28,500 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply and Demand: As of June 26, the weekly output decreased by 900 tons to 23,600 tons. It is expected that the output will increase in July. The demand is continuously decreasing, and downstream product prices are falling [7]. - Inventory: On June 26, the polysilicon inventory increased by 0.8 million tons to 27 million tons [8]. - Logic: In July, the futures price increased with reduced positions. The cost of industrial silicon provides support, but the demand is still weak. The price is likely to be under pressure if there is no significant production cut [8]. Industrial Silicon - Spot Prices: On June 26, the average market price of oxygen - containing Si5530 industrial silicon in East China was 8,150 yuan/ton, and that of Si4210 was 8,700 yuan/ton [8]. - Supply and Demand: In May 2025, the output increased by 2.3% month - on - month. In June, the output is expected to reach 340,000 - 350,000 tons. The demand has recovered, but the terminal demand is still weak [9]. - Inventory: Warehouse receipts, social inventory, and factory inventory have all decreased [9]. - Logic: Large - scale enterprise production cuts have driven up futures prices, but the supply increase is greater than the demand increase. The price may fluctuate at a low level [10]. Soda Ash - Spot Prices: The mainstream transaction price of heavy soda ash was around 1,300 yuan/ton [11]. - Supply and Demand: This week, the domestic soda ash output was 716,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38,000 tons. As of June 26, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7669 million tons, an increase of 11,000 tons [11]. - Logic: The surplus logic dominates the market again. After the end of maintenance, inventory accumulation may accelerate. High - level short positions should be held [12][13]. Glass - Spot Prices: The average transaction price in Shahe was around 1,100 yuan/ton [11]. - Supply and Demand: As of June 26, the daily output of national float glass was 156,800 tons, a 0.87% increase from the 19th. This week, the output was 1.0909 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24% [11]. - Logic: Spot sales have weakened. The market is in the off - season, and the industry needs capacity reduction. The price is expected to fluctuate between 950 - 1050 [13].