广发期货《黑色》日报-20250701

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - In the first half of the year, the supply and demand of steel were both strong, and the inventory continued to decline. However, the price was dragged down by the coking coal cost and continued to fall. Currently, the price shows signs of stabilizing and rebounding. The demand has weakened slightly on a month - on - month basis, mainly due to the high growth of steel exports [1][3]. - In June, the supply and demand of steel were close to balance, and the inventory stopped falling and remained flat. From July to August, the demand is expected to decline. In the medium term, steel maintains a pattern of weak cost support and poor demand expectations. With the resumption of production in coking coal production areas affecting the price to weaken again, it is recommended to try shorting at the current position or sell out - of - the - money call options [1][3]. Coke Industry - As of the previous trading day's close, the coke futures showed a volatile downward trend, while the spot market was stable. The fourth round of price cuts for coke was implemented on June 23, with a cumulative reduction of 170/190 yuan/ton, and the market expectation has started to improve. The supply has tightened marginally due to environmental protection and maintenance. The demand has rigid support but the iron - water production is on a downward trend. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to hedge the Coke 2509 contract at high prices, stay on the sidelines for speculation, and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [5]. Coking Coal Industry - As of the previous trading day's close, the coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, while the spot market was slightly stronger. The domestic coking coal showed signs of stabilizing, with some coal mines having better sales. The supply has decreased due to environmental protection and accidents. The demand has some resilience, and the restocking demand shows signs of recovery. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: The spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3130 yuan/ton, 3160 yuan/ton, and 3180 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of +50 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and - 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous values. The prices of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3020 yuan/ton, 2997 yuan/ton, and 3015 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 11 yuan/ton, 2 yuan/ton, and 10 yuan/ton [1][3]. - Hot - rolled Coil: The spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3200 yuan/ton, 3110 yuan/ton, and 3180 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of +10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and - 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous values. The prices of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3129 yuan/ton, 3123 yuan/ton, and 3128 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 3 yuan/ton, 2 yuan/ton, and 1 yuan/ton [1][3]. Cost and Profit - Cost: The billet price was 2900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The cost of electric - arc furnace rebar in Jiangsu was 3270 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton, and the cost of converter rebar in Jiangsu was 2954 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [1][3]. - Profit: The profits of rebar in East China, North China, and South China were 87 yuan/ton, 167 yuan/ton, and 157 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of +18 yuan/ton, - 2 yuan/ton, and +8 yuan/ton. The profits of hot - rolled coil in East China, North China, and South China were 197 yuan/ton, 117 yuan/ton, and 197 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 8 yuan/ton, 8 yuan/ton, and 18 yuan/ton [1][3]. Production - The daily average iron - water output was 242.1 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons. The output of the five major steel products was 881.0 tons, an increase of 12.5 tons or 1.4%. The rebar output was 217.8 tons, an increase of 5.7 tons or 2.7%, including an increase in electric - arc furnace output of 1.6 tons or 6.8% and an increase in converter output of 4.1 tons or 2.2%. The hot - rolled coil output was 327.2 tons, an increase of 1.8 tons or 0.6% [1][3]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products was 1340.0 tons, an increase of 1.1 tons or 0.1%. The rebar inventory was 549.0 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons or 0.4%. The hot - rolled coil inventory was 341.2 tons, an increase of 1.0 tons or 0.3% [1][3]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume was 10.5 tons, unchanged from the previous value. The apparent demand for the five major steel products was 879.9 tons, a decrease of 4.3 tons or 0.5%. The apparent demand for rebar was 219.9 tons, an increase of 0.7 tons or 0.3%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil was 326.3 tons, a decrease of 4.4 tons or 1.3% [1][3]. Coke Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The price of Grade - A wet - quenched coke in Shanxi was 1094 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of quasi - Grade - A wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton or 0.9%. The prices of the 09 and 01 contracts were 1404 yuan/ton and 1443 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 18 yuan/ton and 19 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - The weekly output of coke from all - sample coking plants was 64.5 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons or 0.3%. The weekly output of coke from 247 steel mills was 47.4 tons, unchanged [5]. Demand - The iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 242.3 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons or 0.0% [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory was 940.9 tons, a decrease of 12.0 tons or 1.3%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 113.0 tons, a decrease of 2.6 tons or 2.2%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 627.8 tons, a decrease of 6.5 tons or 1.04%. The port inventory was 200.1 tons, a decrease of 3.0 tons or 1.5% [5]. Supply - Demand Gap - The calculated supply - demand gap for coke was - 5.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons or 3.84% [5]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) increased by 10 yuan/ton or 1.1%, and the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) was 843 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton or 0.6%. The prices of the 09 and 01 contracts were 825 yuan/ton and 861 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 23 yuan/ton and 29 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - The weekly output of raw coal from Fenwei sample coal mines was 852.9 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons or 0.4%. The weekly output of clean coal was 434.9 tons, a decrease of 2.3 tons or 0.5% [5]. Demand - The daily average output of coke from all - sample coking plants was 64.5 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons or 0.3%. The daily average output of coke from 247 steel mills was 47.4 tons, unchanged [5]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines was 223.3 tons, a decrease of 35.6 tons or 13.8%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants was 809.0 tons, an increase of 13.2 tons or 1.74%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 781.2 tons, an increase of 6.6 tons or 0.8%. The port inventory was 285.6 tons, a decrease of 17.7 tons or 5.8% [5].