永安期货有色早报-20250701

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the copper market, due to the uncertain S232 investigation on copper and the anticipation of US copper tariffs, a large amount of electrolytic copper has flowed to the US, leading to low inventory levels in the LME and domestic markets. The copper market is in a tight - balance situation prone to short - squeezes. After the S232 investigation results are released, the market logic may reverse [1]. - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly, and demand is expected to seasonally weaken in July. The supply - demand balance is expected to be flat, with a short - term stable fundamental situation. Attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1]. - Zinc prices have fluctuated upwards this week, mainly due to high macro - sentiment. Supply is expected to increase in July, while demand is seasonally weak. The strategy is to maintain a short - allocation mindset for zinc and hold long - short positions between domestic and foreign markets [2]. - In the nickel market, supply remains high, demand is weak, and inventory shows different trends overseas and domestically. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5]. - The stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation, with supply cuts by some steel mills, mainly driven by rigid demand. Inventory has slightly increased, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. - Lead prices rebounded from a low level this week, mainly due to speculation on battery stocking demand and overseas cancelled warrants. However, actual downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment. It is expected that lead will fluctuate in the range of 16,800 - 17,300 next week, with a slight decrease in primary supply and weak demand in July [7]. - Tin prices have fluctuated upwards, mainly affected by commodity sentiment. Supply is affected by mining issues, and demand is expected to decline. In the short term, long - positions can be cautiously held, and high - short opportunities after the maintenance period can be considered in the medium - to - long term [10]. - For industrial silicon, due to significant production cuts by leading enterprises, the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. In the long term, prices are expected to be anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading enterprises [13]. - Carbonate lithium prices have risen due to sentiment speculation. Supply is expected to be excessive in the short term, leading to inventory accumulation and downward pressure on prices. However, "anti - involution" competition policies may drive sentiment up [15]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 24 to June 30, the spot price of Shanghai copper increased by 25, the premium changed by - 13, and the LME inventory decreased by 650 tons [1]. - Market Situation: The market is worried about the S232 investigation. The anticipation of US copper tariffs has led to a large amount of copper flowing to the US, resulting in low inventory levels and increased price volatility [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 24 to June 30, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 110, and the LME inventory increased by 550 tons [1]. - Market Situation: Supply has increased slightly, demand is expected to seasonally weaken in July, and the supply - demand balance is expected to be flat [1]. Zinc - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 24 to June 30, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 80, and the LME inventory decreased by 1750 tons [2]. - Market Situation: Zinc prices have fluctuated upwards due to high macro - sentiment. Supply is expected to increase in July, while demand is seasonally weak [2]. Nickel - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 24 to June 30, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 288 tons [5]. - Market Situation: Supply remains high, demand is weak, and inventory shows different trends overseas and domestically [5]. Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 24 to June 30, the price of 304 cold - rolled coils remained unchanged, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan slightly increased [6]. - Market Situation: The fundamental situation is weak, with supply cuts by some steel mills and mainly rigid demand [6]. Lead - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 24 to June 30, the spot premium decreased by 5, and the LME inventory decreased by 1500 tons [7]. - Market Situation: Lead prices rebounded from a low level due to speculation, but actual downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment. It is expected to fluctuate in a certain range next week [7]. Tin - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 24 to June 30, the spot import profit decreased by 1572.76, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [10]. - Market Situation: Tin prices have fluctuated upwards due to commodity sentiment. Supply is affected by mining issues, and demand is expected to decline [10]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 24 to June 30, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 30, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 271 [13]. - Market Situation: Due to significant production cuts by leading enterprises, the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [13]. Carbonate Lithium - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 24 to June 30, the SMM electric - carbon price increased by 150, and the number of registered warehouse receipts increased by 630 [15]. - Market Situation: Prices have risen due to sentiment speculation. Supply is expected to be excessive in the short term, leading to inventory accumulation and downward pressure on prices [15].