原油成品油早报-20250701

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Oil prices dropped significantly this week as the geopolitical risk premium related to Middle East tensions faded. The market is now focused on OPEC+ production policies and Trump's decision on reciprocal tariffs, with the US set to talk to Iran next week. [5] - In terms of fundamentals, global oil products were de - stocked in late June, with the de - stocking rate slightly exceeding expectations. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 5.836 million barrels per day in the week of June 20th, reaching the lowest level in the same period of history. [5] - WTI fundamentals are positive as US gasoline and diesel are de - stocked, apparent demand rebounds, and refinery profits fluctuate. Domestic refinery profits rebound, and the main refinery operating rate increases. [5] - However, OPEC+ plans to significantly increase production by 414,000 barrels per day in August, and the non - OPEC production is expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter. The upside space for absolute prices is limited, but a positive spread strategy is recommended for the price difference between months. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - The EU is willing to accept a trade agreement with the US, which includes a 10% general tariff on many EU exports, but hopes for lower tariffs on key industries from the US. [3] - Kazakhstan's oil production may be 2% higher than expected this year, reaching 2 million barrels per day due to increased production from large oil fields. [4] - Morgan Stanley still expects a daily surplus of 1.3 million barrels in the market in 2026. Non - OPEC oil supply will grow strongly from 2025 to 2026, about 1 million barrels per day, and Brent crude oil prices are expected to fall to around $60 per barrel early next year. [4] 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of June 20th, US crude oil exports decreased by 91,000 barrels per day to 4.27 million barrels per day, while domestic crude oil production increased by 400 barrels to 13.435 million barrels per day. [4] - Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 5.836 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a decrease of 1.39%. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 237,000 barrels to 402.5 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. [4] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.049 million barrels per day, a 1.6% decrease compared to the same period last year. Commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 5.944 million barrels per day, an increase of 440,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. [4] - In China, the operating rate of major refineries increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel both increased, with sales - to - production ratios rising. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week. Major refinery comprehensive profits rebounded, and local refinery comprehensive profits improved. [5] 3.3 Weekly View - With the geopolitical risk premium related to Middle East tensions fading, oil prices dropped significantly this week. The market is now focused on OPEC+ production policies and Trump's decision on reciprocal tariffs, and the US will talk to Iran next week. [5] - In late June, global oil products were de - stocked, with the de - stocking rate slightly exceeding expectations. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 5.836 million barrels per day in the week of June 20th, reaching the lowest level in the same period of history, mainly due to high - level refinery operations and a rapid decrease in Canadian crude oil imports. [5] - The number of oil drilling rigs decreased by 6 to 432. US gasoline and diesel were de - stocked, apparent demand rebounded, refinery profits fluctuated, and WTI fundamentals improved. Domestic refinery profits rebounded, the main refinery operating rate increased, and the Dubai monthly spread strengthened recently. [5] - On the negative side, OPEC+ plans to significantly increase production by 414,000 barrels per day in August, and the next meeting will be held on July 6th. Overall, the fundamentals are still in the summer peak season, with a large supply - demand contradiction in the US market. Although Russian refined oil exports have declined recently, the expectation of rapid OPEC+ production increase in August is strengthening, and non - OPEC production is expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter. The upside space for absolute prices is limited, and a positive spread strategy is recommended for the price difference between months. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies on absolute prices. [5]