广发期货日评-20250701

Report Summary 1. Core View - The macro - situation improvement drives up risk appetite, with different futures contracts in various sectors showing diverse trends, and corresponding operation suggestions are provided for each contract [3]. 2. Summary by Sector Financial - Equity Index: The technology boom continues, and small - and medium - cap indices reach new highs. The index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range. Caution is advised when chasing highs, but a light - position sell of 8 - 9 month 5900 strike MO options to collect premiums can be considered [3]. - Government Bonds: The June PMI rose slightly month - on - month, but domestic demand still needs a boost. After the cross - month, the capital interest rate may decline seasonally. In the unilateral strategy, long positions in bond futures can be appropriately allocated on dips. In the cash - and - carry strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract and the steepening of the yield curve [3]. - Precious Metals: The US dollar index has been declining, and precious metals have stopped falling and rebounded. Gold prices are consolidating around $3300 after standing above the 60 - day moving average, while silver prices are oscillating in the $35.5 - 37 range [3]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The EC contract is oscillating downward. It is advisable to wait and see, with the 08 contract expected to hover between 1700 - 1800 [3]. Black - Steel: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. Unilateral operations should be on hold for now, and consider long - steel short - raw material arbitrage [3]. - Iron Ore: Pig iron production remains high, and terminal demand shows resilience. Go long on dips, with the upper pressure level around 720 [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Adopt a long - coking coal short - coke strategy. The market auction non - successful bid rate has decreased, coal mine production has declined from a high level, and coking profits have declined [3]. Non - ferrous - Copper: The COMEX - LME price difference has widened again, and high copper prices are suppressing downstream procurement. The main contract reference range is 79000 - 81000 [3]. - Aluminum and Related Products: The aluminum market is oscillating at a high level, with light spot trading and slight inventory accumulation. Different aluminum - related products have their own reference price ranges, and some suggest mid - term short - selling opportunities on rallies [3]. Energy and Chemical - Crude Oil: Geopolitical premiums are fading. Pay attention to the impact of OPEC + meetings on market sentiment. Short - term wait - and - see is recommended, and consider long positions on dips [3]. - Urea: Supply is at a high level while demand release is insufficient. The short - term futures price is likely to continue to bottom out. Consider long positions on dips and exit if the actual quota fails to meet expectations [3]. - PX, PTA, and Related Products: These products show different trends based on supply - demand and oil price factors. Different trading strategies such as range trading, spread trading, and short - selling on rallies are recommended [3]. Agricultural - Grains and Oilseeds: Different grains and oilseeds futures have their own trends. For example, soybeans are on a rebound, and operations such as rolling long or short - selling on rallies are suggested for different contracts [3]. - Livestock and Poultry Products: The live - hog spot market sentiment is strong, but the futures market sees profit - taking. Different trading strategies are recommended for eggs and other products [3]. - Sugar and Cotton: Sugar has a relatively loose overseas supply outlook, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. Cotton's downstream market remains weak, and short - term short positions are suggested [3]. Special Commodities - Glass and Rubber: Glass spot sales are weakening, and the futures price is fluctuating in the 950 - 1050 range for the 09 contract. Rubber has a weakening fundamental outlook, and short positions above 14000 should be held [3]. New Energy - Polysilicon: The polysilicon futures price is oscillating, with the market sentiment easing but the fundamentals still under pressure. The lithium carbonate main contract is expected to trade in the range of 58,000 - 64,000 [3][4][5].