《黑色》日报-20250701

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports [1][3][5] 2. Core Views Steel Industry - In the first half of the year, steel supply and demand were both strong, with continuous inventory reduction, but prices were dragged down by coking coal costs and continued to fall. Currently, prices show signs of stabilizing and rebounding. Demand has weakened slightly month - on - month, mainly due to the high growth of steel exports. In June, supply and demand were close to balance, and inventory stopped falling and remained flat. From July to August, it is the off - season for demand. In the second half of the year, the main interference factor for demand is still China - US tariffs, and the overall demand expectation remains weak. In the medium term, steel maintains a pattern of weak cost support and poor demand expectations. Due to the resumption of production in coking coal producing areas, prices have weakened again. It is recommended to try shorting at the current position or selling out - of - the - money call options [1][3] Coke Industry - As of the previous day's close, coke futures showed a volatile downward trend, while spot prices remained stable. The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented on June 23, with a cumulative reduction of 170/190 yuan/ton, and a phased bottom is gradually emerging, and market expectations are starting to improve. On the supply side, due to environmental inspections and maintenance, supply has tightened marginally, and independent coking plant开工 has declined. On the demand side, in June, molten iron production remained above 240,000 tons per day, with rigid demand support, but blast furnace开工 decreased slightly, and molten iron production continued to decline after reaching its peak. In terms of inventory, coking plant inventories decreased slightly, port inventories continued to decline, and steel mill inventories decreased. The overall inventory is at a medium level. For strategies, the spot fundamentals are still relatively loose, and the premium of coke futures over spot provides hedging space. It is recommended to hedge the Coke 2509 contract at high prices, stay on the sidelines for speculation, and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke for arbitrage [5] Coking Coal Industry - As of the previous day's close, coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, while spot prices were stable with a slight upward bias. On the supply side, due to environmental protection and other factors, production in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi has decreased, and coal mines are starting to hold prices. Although the overall production has decreased slightly, it is still at a relatively high level. Imported coal prices have rebounded slightly, but there is still obvious inventory pressure. On the demand side, coking plant开工 has started to decline, and downstream blast furnace molten iron production continues to decline after reaching its peak. However, in June, molten iron production remained above 240,000 tons per day, and downstream demand still has resilience, and restocking demand shows signs of recovery. In terms of inventory, coal mine inventories are at a high level and are currently reducing inventory through production cuts. Ports are also reducing inventory from a high level, and downstream users are controlling inventory. The overall inventory is at a medium level. For strategies, the spot fundamentals have improved, and there is a hedging demand for spot merchants after basis repair. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke for arbitrage [5] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East China increased by 50 yuan/ton to 3130 yuan/ton, remained unchanged in North China at 3160 yuan/ton, and decreased by 10 yuan/ton in South China to 3180 yuan/ton. Futures contract prices also showed small increases [1][3] - Hot - rolled Coil: Spot prices in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3200 yuan/ton, remained unchanged in North China at 3110 yuan/ton, and decreased by 10 yuan/ton in South China to 3180 yuan/ton. Futures contract prices also had small increases [1][3] Cost and Profit - Cost: The price of steel billets decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 2900 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2954 yuan/ton [1][3] - Profit: The profit of East China rebar increased by 18 yuan/ton to 87 yuan/ton, the profit of North China rebar decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 167 yuan/ton, and the profit of South China rebar increased by 8 yuan/ton to 157 yuan/ton. The profit of East China hot - rolled coil increased by 8 yuan/ton to 197 yuan/ton, the profit of North China hot - rolled coil increased by 8 yuan/ton to 117 yuan/ton, and the profit of South China hot - rolled coil increased by 18 yuan/ton to 197 yuan/ton [1][3] Production - Daily Average Molten Iron Production: It decreased slightly by 0.1 to 242.1 tons, with a decline rate of 0.0% [1][3] - Five - major Steel Products Production: It increased by 12.5 tons to 881.0 tons, with an increase rate of 1.4% [1][3] - Rebar Production: It increased by 5.7 tons to 217.8 tons, with an increase rate of 2.7%. Among them, electric - arc furnace production increased by 1.6 tons to 25.0 tons, with an increase rate of 6.8%, and converter production increased by 4.1 tons to 192.9 tons, with an increase rate of 2.2% [1][3] - Hot - rolled Coil Production: It increased by 1.8 tons to 327.2 tons, with an increase rate of 0.6% [1][3] Inventory - Five - major Steel Products Inventory: It increased slightly by 1.1 tons to 1340.0 tons, with an increase rate of 0.1% [1][3] - Rebar Inventory: It decreased by 2.1 tons to 549.0 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.4% [1][3] - Hot - rolled Coil Inventory: It increased by 1.0 tons to 341.2 tons, with an increase rate of 0.3% [1][3] Transaction and Demand - Building Materials Transaction Volume: It remained unchanged at 10.5, with an increase rate of 0.4% [1][3] - Five - major Steel Products Apparent Demand: It decreased by 4.3 tons to 879.9 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.5% [1][3] - Rebar Apparent Demand: It increased by 0.7 tons to 219.9 tons, with an increase rate of 0.3% [1][3] - Hot - rolled Coil Apparent Demand: It decreased by 4.4 tons to 326.3 tons, with a decline rate of - 1.3% [1][3] Coke Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - Coke Spot Prices: The price of Grade - A wet - quenched coke in Shanxi remained unchanged at 1094 yuan/ton, while the price of quasi - Grade - A wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1160 yuan/ton [5] - Coke Futures Prices: The Coke 09 contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 1404 yuan/ton, and the Coke 01 contract decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 1443 yuan/ton [5] Supply - Full - sample Coking Plant Daily Average Production: It decreased by 0.2 tons to 64.5 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.3% [5] - 247 Steel Mills Daily Average Production: It remained unchanged at 47.4 tons, with an increase rate of 0.1% [5] Demand - 247 Steel Mills Molten Iron Production: It increased slightly by 0.1 tons to 242.3 tons, with an increase rate of 0.0% [5] Inventory - Total Coke Inventory: It decreased by 12.0 tons to 940.9 tons, with a decline rate of - 1.3% [5] - Full - sample Coking Plant Coke Inventory: It decreased by 2.6 tons to 113.0 tons, with a decline rate of - 2.2% [5] - 247 Steel Mills Coke Inventory: It decreased by 6.5 tons to 627.8 tons, with a decline rate of - 1.04% [5] - Port Inventory: It decreased by 3.0 tons to 200.1 tons, with a decline rate of - 1.5% [5] Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 0.2 tons to - 5.4 tons, with a decline rate of - 3.84% [5] Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - Coking Coal Spot Prices: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) increased by 5 yuan/ton to 843 yuan/ton [5] - Coking Coal Futures Prices: The Coking Coal 09 contract decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 825 yuan/ton, and the Coking Coal 01 contract decreased by 29 yuan/ton to 861 yuan/ton [5] Supply - Fenwei Sample Coal Mine Production: Raw coal production decreased by 3.6 tons to 852.9 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.4%, and clean coal production decreased by 2.3 tons to 434.9 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.5% [5] Demand - Full - sample Coking Plant Daily Average Production: It decreased by 0.2 tons to 64.5 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.3% [5] - 247 Steel Mills Daily Average Production: It remained unchanged at 47.4 tons, with an increase rate of 0.1% [5] Inventory - Fenwei Coal Mine Clean Coal Inventory: It decreased by 35.6 tons to 223.3 tons, with a decline rate of - 13.8% [5] - Full - sample Coking Plant Coking Coal Inventory: It increased by 13.2 tons to 809.0 tons, with an increase rate of 1.74% [5] - 247 Steel Mills Coking Coal Inventory: It increased by 6.6 tons to 781.2 tons, with an increase rate of 0.8% [5] - Port Inventory: It decreased by 17.7 tons to 285.6 tons, with a decline rate of - 5.8% [5]