广发期货《农产品》日报-20250701

1. General Information - The reports cover multiple industries including oils and fats, sugar, cotton, eggs, meals, corn, and hogs, dated July 1, 2025 [1][4][6][7][11][13][16] 2. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports 3. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian palm oil futures may face downward pressure to seek support around 3,800 ringgit; Dalian palm oil futures may seek support at the annual line of 8,200 yuan [2] - Soybean oil: Weak crude oil and US soybean's good growing conditions affect CBOT soybean and soybean oil; domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to increase, and the spot basis is under pressure [2] Sugar - Global sugar supply is becoming looser, capping the upside of raw sugar prices; domestic sugar market may maintain a bullish sentiment in the short - term but turn bearish after the rebound due to expected import increase [5] Cotton - The tight supply of old - crop cotton persists in the short - term, but the long - term supply is sufficient; downstream demand is weak, so cotton prices are likely to range - bound [6] Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, demand is average, and prices may remain stable first, decline slightly in the short - term, and then stabilize [8] Meals - US soybean planting area was slightly lowered, with a neutral impact; Brazilian soybean market is boosted; domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is stable. Pay attention to demand sustainability and look for long opportunities on dips [11] Corn - Corn supply is tight, and prices are rising steadily in the spot market. Although there are some factors limiting the increase, the long - term supply - demand gap supports price increases. Pay attention to the corn auction and wheat market [13][15] Hogs - The spot price of hogs is still in a range - bound pattern. The market sentiment may be bullish in the short - term, but there is a risk of price decline for the 09 contract if the inventory moves backward [16][17] 4. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats - Soybean oil: The current price in Jiangsu is 8,240 yuan, down 0.60% from the previous value; the futures price of Y2509 is 7,984 yuan, down 0.22%; the basis is 256 yuan, down 11.11%; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 9.00% [2] - Palm oil: The current price in Guangdong is 8,400 yuan, down 1.18%; the futures price of P2509 is 8,330 yuan, down 0.55%; the basis is 70 yuan, down 43.55%; the import profit in Guangzhou Port in September decreased by 4.79% [2] - Rapeseed oil: The current price in Jiangsu is 8,080 yuan, down 0.73%; the futures price of 01509 is 9,415 yuan, down 0.54%; the basis is 165 yuan, down 10.33% [2] Sugar - Futures market: The price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.50%, and sugar 2509 increased by 0.26%; ICE raw sugar decreased by 3.00%; the 1 - 9 spread increased by 6.77% [5] - Spot market: The price in Nanning decreased by 0.16%, and in Kunming increased by 0.08%; the basis in Nanning decreased by 8.39%, and in Kunming decreased by 10.20% [5] - Industry situation: National sugar production increased by 12.03%, sales increased by 23.07%, and the inventory decreased by 9.56% [5] Cotton - Futures market: The price of cotton 2509 decreased by 0.15%, and cotton 2601 decreased by 0.04%; ICE US cotton decreased by 1.85%; the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 300.00% [6] - Spot market: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 0.43%, and CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.30% [6] - Industry situation: Industrial inventory decreased by 1.2%, imports decreased by 33.3%, and textile exports showed mixed performance [6] Eggs - Futures market: The price of the egg 09 contract increased by 0.44%, and the 07 contract increased by 0.64%; the basis decreased by 20.78%, and the 9 - 7 spread decreased by 0.23% [7] - Spot market: The egg price in the production area decreased by 4.90% [7] - Related indicators: The price of egg - laying chicks remained unchanged, the price of culled hens increased by 4.05%, and the egg - feed ratio decreased by 3.86% [7] Meals - Soybean meal: The current price in Jiangsu is 2,840 yuan, up 0.71%; the futures price of M2509 is 2,961 yuan, up 0.51%; the basis is - 121 yuan, up 3.97%; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 13.3% [11] - Rapeseed meal: The current price in Jiangsu is 2,470 yuan, up 1.65%; the futures price of RM2509 is 2,572 yuan, up 0.51%; the basis is - 102 yuan, up 20.93%; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 3.17% [11] - Soybean: The current price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged, the futures price of the main contract increased by 0.02%; the current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the futures price of the main contract increased by 0.22% [11] Corn - Corn: The price of the 2509 contract is 2,378 yuan, down 0.25%; the basis is 2 yuan, up 150.00%; the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 8.11%; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.17% [13] - Corn starch: The price of the 2509 contract is 2,733 yuan, down 0.36%; the basis is - 13 yuan, up 43.48%; the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 11.76%; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 4.14% [13] Hogs - Futures market: The price of the 2507 contract increased by 1.65%, and the 2509 contract decreased by 0.96%; the 7 - 9 spread decreased by 94.74%; the main - contract position increased by 1.78% [16] - Spot market: The prices in various regions generally increased, with the largest increase of 600 yuan in Guangdong [16] - Related indicators: The daily slaughter volume decreased by 0.27%; the self - breeding profit increased by 159.02%, and the purchased - piglet profit increased by 29.49%; the fertile sow inventory increased by 0.10% [16]