瑞达期货聚丙烯产业日报-20250701

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - PP2509 oscillates weakly, closing at 7,044 yuan/ton. In the short - term, PP2509 is expected to show an oscillating trend, with the daily K - line focusing on support around 7,000 and pressure around 7,140 [2] - There is a situation of weak supply and demand for PP. In the short - term, the main basis is neutral. At the beginning of July, there are many PP parking devices, and the production and capacity utilization rate are expected to decline. In the long - term, the supply pressure brought by new capacity still exists [2] - The downstream off - season atmosphere is strong, and the orders of products mainly decline. The downstream operating rate of PP may continue the trend of a slight decline [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polypropylene is 7,044 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan; the trading volume is 210,887 lots, down 7,959 lots; the open interest is 423,329 lots, down 2,430 lots [2] - The net long position of the top 20 holders is - 67,671 lots, an increase of 415 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 7,404 lots, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price of PP (fiber/injection molding) is 909 US dollars/ton; the CFR Far East intermediate price of PP (homopolymer injection molding) is 879 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars/ton [2] - The duty - paid self - pick - up price of PP (drawn grade) in Zhejiang is 7,220 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR China price of propylene is 796 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton; the CFR price of propane in the Far East is 549 US dollars/ton, down 9 US dollars/ton [2] - The FOB price of naphtha in Singapore is 61.72 US dollars/barrel, up 0.38 US dollars/barrel; the CFR price of naphtha in Japan is 572.75 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton [2] Industry Situation - The operating rate of polypropylene in petrochemical enterprises is 79.3%, down 0.54 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The average operating rate of polypropylene is 49.05%, down 0.58 percentage points; the operating rate of polypropylene in plastic weaving is 43.2%, down 0.36 percentage points [2] - The operating rate of polypropylene in injection molding is 55.43%, down 0.35 percentage points; the operating rate of polypropylene in BOPP is 60.41%, unchanged [2] - The operating rate of polypropylene in PP pipes is 36.6%, up 0.54 percentage points; the operating rate of polypropylene in tape master rolls is 48.95%, down 0.59 percentage points [2] - The operating rate of polypropylene in PP non - woven fabrics is 36.28%, down 0.37 percentage points; the operating rate of polypropylene in CPP is 56.38%, down 0.62 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polypropylene is 13.61%, down 0.1 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 12.27%, up 0.04 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options for polypropylene is 10.37%, down 0.42 percentage points [2] Industry News - From June 20th to 26th, the domestic polypropylene production was 789,200 tons, a 0.23% increase from the previous cycle; the average capacity utilization rate was 79.30%, a 0.54% decrease month - on - month [2] - From June 20th to 26th, the average operating rate of the domestic polypropylene downstream industry decreased by 0.58 percentage points to 49.05% [2] - As of June 25th, the total commercial inventory of polypropylene in China was 785,800 tons, a decrease of 34,700 tons from the previous period, a 4.23% month - on - month decrease [2]