瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20250701

1. Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 1, the silicon ferroalloy 2509 contract closed at 5270, down 2.04%. The spot price of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia dropped by 40 yuan/ton to 5230. The开工 rate is running at a low level, the price of semi - coke in Ningxia on the cost side has decreased, and the overall expectation of steel demand is still weak. Attention should be paid to market sentiment disturbances under tariff policy changes. The production profit of ferroalloys is currently negative, with a spot profit of - 310 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia and - 290 yuan/ton in Ningxia. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On July 1, the manganese silicon 2509 contract closed at 5624, down 0.95%. The spot price of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia dropped by 20 yuan/ton to 5480. From a fundamental perspective, the manufacturers'开工 rate has rebounded for 6 consecutive weeks at a low level, and the overall inventory is still high. On the cost side, the port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 0.9 million tons, and the downstream hot metal production is running at a high level. In terms of profit, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 120 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it is - 210 yuan/ton. In the market, steel mills are cautious in purchasing, and the tender price continues to decline. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价 was 5,624.00 yuan/ton, down 18.00 yuan; SF主力合约收盘价 was 5,270.00 yuan/ton, down 74.00 yuan. - SM期货合约持仓量 was 572,733.00 hands, up 81.00 hands; SF期货合约持仓量 was 420,269.00 hands, up 23,161.00 hands. - The net position of the top 20 in manganese silicon was - 26,211.00 hands, up 9,264.00 hands; the net position of the top 20 in silicon ferroalloy was - 47,967.00 hands, up 6,075.00 hands. - The SM1 - 9 month contract spread was 38.00 yuan/ton, up 6.00 yuan; the SF1 - 9 month contract spread was - 24.00 yuan/ton, down 8.00 yuan. - The SM仓单 was 88,062.00 sheets, down 670.00 sheets; the SF仓单 was 9,109.00 sheets, up 787.00 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of FeMn68Si18 in Inner Mongolia was 5,480.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan; the price of FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5,250.00 yuan/ton, down 30.00 yuan. - The price of FeMn68Si18 in Guizhou was 5,550.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of FeSi75 - B in Qinghai was 5,170.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of FeMn68Si18 in Yunnan was 5,500.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of FeSi75 - B in Ningxia was 5,230.00 yuan/ton, down 40.00 yuan. - The manganese silicon index average was 5,490.00 yuan/ton, up 25.00 yuan; the SF主力合约基差 was - 40.00 yuan/ton, up 34.00 yuan. - The SM主力合约基差 was - 144.00 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore (Mn38 block) at Tianjin Port was 35.00 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica stone (98% in the northwest) was 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of secondary metallurgical coke in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 850.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 640.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The manganese ore port inventory was 422.40 million tons, up 0.90 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The manganese silicon企业开工率 was 39.21%, up 2.82 percentage points; the silicon ferroalloy企业开工率 was 31.70%, down 0.99 percentage points. - The manganese silicon supply was 179,235.00 tons, up 2,625.00 tons; the silicon ferroalloy supply was 97,500.00 tons, down 400.00 tons. - The manganese silicon厂家库存 was 221,800.00 tons, up 15,900.00 tons; the silicon ferroalloy厂家库存 was 6.94 million tons, up 0.14 million tons. - The manganese silicon全国钢厂库存 was 15.15 days, down 0.29 days; the silicon ferroalloy全国钢厂库存 was 15.20 days, down 0.24 days. - The demand for manganese silicon from the five major steel types was 125,881.00 tons, up 2,164.00 tons; the demand for silicon ferroalloy from the five major steel types was 20,354.20 tons, up 389.80 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The 247家钢厂高炉开工率 was 83.84%, unchanged; the 247家钢厂高炉产能利用率 was 90.85%, up 0.04 percentage points. - The crude steel output was 8,654.50 million tons, up 52.60 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Domestic leading photovoltaic glass enterprises plan to collectively reduce production by 30% starting from July to break the "involution - style" competition, and the supply of domestic photovoltaic glass is expected to decline rapidly. - Starting from July 1, China will continue to impose anti - dumping duties on imported stainless steel billets and stainless steel hot - rolled sheets/coils originating from the EU, the UK, South Korea, and Indonesia for a period of 5 years. - Trump said he would not extend the July 9 deadline, set tariffs for each country, and threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Japanese cars. The EU is willing to accept the US "benchmark tariff" but seeks exemptions for key industries. Canada has cancelled the digital service tax, and the US and Canada will resume trade negotiations. South Korea's primary task is to obtain a tariff extension permit. - From January to May this year, the national crude steel output was 432 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. The apparent domestic consumption of crude steel was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4% [2].