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瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250701
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-01 09:34

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate still maintain a situation of excessive supply and weak demand, with industrial inventory at a high level. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows the double - line above the 0 - axis with the green column converging. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 62,780 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 61,540 hands, down 1,225 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 326,676 hands, down 4,148 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 400 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 22,628 hands/ton, up 630 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 61,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 59,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 1,480 yuan/ton, down 520 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 694 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 5,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,572 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 42,100 tons, down 5,800 tons; the monthly import volume is 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons; the monthly export volume is 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons; the enterprise operating rate is 47%, down 6 percentage points. The monthly output of power batteries is 123,500 MWh, up 5,300 MWh [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary materials (811 - type) in China is 144,500 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan; the price of ternary materials (622 power - type) in China is 120,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan; the price of ternary materials (523 single - crystal type) in China is 125,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan. The operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 55%, up 2 percentage points; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 49%, up 2 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,270,000 vehicles, up 19,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,307,000 vehicles, up 81,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 43.99%, up 1.25 percentage points; the monthly export volume is 212,000 vehicles, up 12,000 vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total subscription position is 167,301 contracts, up 7,484 contracts; the total put position is 86,597 contracts, up 1,774 contracts; the total position put - call ratio is 51.76%, down 1.3139 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.23%, up 0.0068 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In June, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 56.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.9 percentage points. In June, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing and comprehensive PMIs were 49.7%, 50.5% and 50.7% respectively, up 0.2, 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - He Xiaopeng of XPeng Motors believes that the situation will improve from the second half of this year to next year. Xiaomi's YU7 has received many positive reviews, and the order - locking has far exceeded expectations [2]. - Tesla announced that the first batch of V4 super - charging piles were put into use on June 30, covering service areas in Shanghai, Gansu, Zhejiang, Chongqing, etc., and were open to non - Tesla brand vehicles for the first time [2].