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瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250701
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-01 09:31

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries is showing a slowdown trend. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy in the medium to long - term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 7,765 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan; the position of the main contract was 361,076 lots, up 5,325 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 57,543 lots, down 3,110 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE were 52,137 lots, down 336 lots; the price difference between August and September industrial silicon was 25 yuan, up 20 yuan [3]. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 8,500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 8,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract was 735 yuan/ton, up 345 yuan; the DMC spot price was 10,560 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The average prices of silica, petroleum coke, clean coal, wood chips, and graphite electrodes (400mm) were 410 yuan/ton, 1,670 yuan/ton, 1,850 yuan/ton, 490 yuan/ton, and 12,250 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - Industrial silicon production was 299,700 tons, down 36,050 tons; social inventory was 542,000 tons, down 17,000 tons; imports were 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; exports were 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The production of organic silicon DMC was 44,200 tons, down 800 tons; the price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon overseas was 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 was 20,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 24,179.3 tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons; the production of aluminum alloy was 1.645 million tons, up 117,000 tons; the operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 67.17%, down 1.23 percentage points [3]. Industry News - From 2022 to 2024, Hesheng Silicon Industry's net profit declined by 37.39%, 49.05%, and 33.64% respectively. In the first quarter of this year, it faced a "double - decline" in revenue and net profit. The US Senate Republican leader plans to vote on Trump's bill, which restricts new energy and affects the demand for the new energy industry [3]. Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, the spot price of industrial silicon is weakly stable. Large factories in the southwest may start production due to lower electricity prices, and some small and medium - sized enterprises also have复产 plans. In Xinjiang's Yili region, the government will continue to subsidize electricity prices, resulting in a continuous supply surplus. On the demand side, the demand from the three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) is slowing down [3].