瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20250701

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Tuesday, the RB2510 contract first declined and then rebounded. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from the previous month and back in the expansion range. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar increased, the capacity utilization rate was 47.75%, and the operating rate of electric arc furnace steel mills continued to decline; the factory inventory increased while the social inventory decreased, the decline of the total inventory narrowed, and the apparent demand remained around 2.19 million tons. The raw material coal and coke prices dropped, weakening the cost support, and the market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA have returned above the 0-axis. It is recommended to conduct intraday short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,003.00 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the position volume was down 48,103 hands. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was 3,894 hands, up 2,360 hands. The RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 13 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 24,614 tons, up 6,393 tons. The HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 133 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,160.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,241 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) and Tianjin (theoretical weight) remained unchanged at 3,160.00 yuan/ton. The basis of the RB main contract was 157.00 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 50.00 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 706.00 yuan/wet ton, down 7.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,265.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,900.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan. The domestic iron ore port inventory was 13,930.23 million tons, up 36.07 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 73.81 million tons, down 7.31 million tons. The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 627.51 million tons, down 6.50 million tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 77.26 million tons, up 8.00 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.85%, up 0.04 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar from sample steel mills was 217.84 million tons, up 5.66 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of sample steel mills for rebar was 47.75%, up 1.25 percentage points. The factory inventory of sample steel mills for rebar was 185.60 million tons, up 3.28 million tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 363.40 million tons, down 5.35 million tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 67.71%, unchanged. The domestic crude steel output was 8,655 million tons, up 53 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese rebar was 1,730 million tons, up 42 million tons. The net export volume of steel was 1,010.00 million tons, up 16.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The National Housing Prosperity Index was 93.72, down 0.13. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 3.70%, down 0.30 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 10.70%, down 0.40 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 5.60%, down 0.20 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 625,020 million square meters, down 4,704 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 23,184 million square meters, down 5,348 million square meters. The inventory of commercial housing for sale was 41,264.00 million square meters, up 439.00 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The third round and fourth batch of 8 central ecological and environmental protection inspection teams were stationed in 5 provinces (autonomous regions) including Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Shaanxi, and Ningxia, as well as 3 central enterprises including China Huaneng Group Co., Ltd., China Datang Group Co., Ltd., and State Power Investment Corporation from May 26th to 28th, 2025, and recently completed the on - site inspection stage. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from the previous month and back in the expansion range, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing prosperity [2].