瑞达期货豆类产业日报-20250701

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For domestic soybeans, the supply is tightening, and traders are reluctant to sell at lower prices, leading to a slight increase in the price of soybeans outside the pass. However, the slow downstream digestion makes it difficult for prices to rise. In the pass, the soybean market is in the off - season, and the price remains stable before the new grain is on the market [2][3]. - For imported soybeans, Brazil's soybean exports in June 2025 are expected to increase. The US soybean planting area in 2025 is lower than previous forecasts and last year, and the inventory on June 1 is higher than expected. In the short term, domestic oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories will continue to accumulate, and the pressure is becoming more prominent [2][3]. - For soybean meal, the supply pattern of domestic oil mills' soybean meal remains loose, and the downstream feed enterprises' subsequent replenishment enthusiasm is decreasing, resulting in prominent supply - demand pressure [3]. - For soybean oil, the supply is relatively loose, and the downstream demand is weak, but the macro - environment is stable and warm, and the increasing demand for biodiesel boosts its price. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Prices: The closing prices of futures for soybeans No.1, No.2, soybean meal, and soybean oil all decreased, except for soybean meal which remained unchanged. The settlement prices of CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil all increased [2]. - Positions: The positions of the main contracts of soybeans No.1 and soybean meal decreased, while that of soybeans No.2 increased. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of soybeans No.1 decreased, while those of soybeans No.2 and soybean meal increased, and that of soybean oil decreased [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of soybeans No.1 decreased, while those of soybeans No.2, soybean meal, and soybean oil remained unchanged [2]. Spot Price - The domestic soybean spot price remained unchanged, and the prices of soybean oil in different regions decreased or remained unchanged. The soybean meal price in Zhangjiagang remained unchanged. The basis of domestic soybean main contracts increased, and the basis of soybean oil and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang also changed [2]. - The import costs of US Gulf and Brazilian soybeans increased [2]. Upstream Situation - The annual yields of US and Brazilian soybeans remained unchanged, but Brazil's ending inventory increased. The weekly inspection volume and export volume of soybeans decreased, while Brazil's monthly export volume increased [2]. - The port inventory of imported soybeans decreased, the soybean meal inventory increased, the national port inventory of soybean oil increased, and the monthly import volume of soybeans increased significantly [2]. - The weekly oil mill operating rate and crushing volume increased [2]. Industry Situation - The spot price of palm oil and the ex - factory price of rapeseed oil increased. The price difference between soybean oil and palm oil decreased, and the price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil increased [2]. - The average spot price of rapeseed meal increased, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased [2]. - The weekly trading volumes of oil mill soybean meal and soybean oil decreased [2]. - The daily crushing profits of domestic and imported soybeans remained unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The annual total domestic consumption of soybeans and the annual food consumption of soybean oil in China increased [2]. - The price of live pigs increased, but the expected profit of pig farming decreased. The monthly output of feed increased, and the monthly inventory of live pigs and breeding sows changed [2]. Option Market - The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options of soybean meal increased, and the historical volatilities of 20 - day and 60 - day soybean meal changed [2]. Industry News - USDA adjusted the 2025 US soybean planting area to 83.38 million acres, lower than previous forecasts and the 2024 level. The soybean inventory on June 1 was 1.008 billion bushels, higher than market expectations and up 3.9% year - on - year [2][3].