Report Information - Report Date: July 02, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Industry: Polysilicon [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The polysilicon market is currently in a state of price range - bound oscillation. The market lacks a significant change in fundamentals, with supply - side production cuts difficult to implement, and the pressure of decreased installations gradually spreading upstream in the industry chain. The price of the polysilicon futures contract has rebounded with reduced positions due to the resonance of a sharp rebound in new - energy commodities, and after the basis repair, it has entered a phase of oscillatory adjustment [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance and Outlook - Market Performance: The price of the polysilicon main contract oscillated within a range. The closing price of the PS2508 contract was 32,700 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.39%. The trading volume was 261,490 lots, and the open interest was 61,196 lots, with a net decrease of 5,137 lots [4]. - Outlook: The average transaction price of N - type polysilicon re - feedstock was 34,400 yuan, and that of N - type dense material was 31,900 yuan, showing stable weekly prices. The fundamentals of polysilicon remained unchanged, with supply - side production cuts hard to implement. The pressure of decreased installations was spreading upstream, and there was obvious inventory accumulation in battery cells and components. The previous sharp price decline reflected overly pessimistic expectations, and recently, due to the resonance of a sharp rebound in new - energy commodities, the futures price rebounded with reduced positions (a reduction of 18,416 lots from the bottom). After the basis repair, the price entered an oscillatory adjustment phase [4]. 3.2 Market News - As of July 01, 2025, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 2,600 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. - In May 2025, domestic photovoltaic installations were approximately 92GW, a year - on - year increase of 383.2% and a month - on - month increase of over 100%, reaching a record high for the same period. From January to May, the newly - added domestic photovoltaic installations were 197.85GW, a year - on - year increase of 150% [5]. - As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative national power generation installed capacity was 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.08 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 56.9%. From January to May, the cumulative average utilization hours of national power generation equipment were 1,249 hours, a decrease of 132 hours compared to the same period last year. The investment in power source projects of major national power generation enterprises was 257.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%, and the investment in power grid projects was 204 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.8% [5].
建信期货多晶硅日报-20250702
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-07-02 01:11