芳烃橡胶早报-20250702

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - For PTA, the near - end supply decreased slightly this week, polyester开工 fell, inventory remained stable, basis weakened, and spot processing fees declined. PX domestic maintenance was implemented, overseas had unexpected shutdowns, PXN strengthened, and the disproportionation and isomerization benefits improved. Downstream profits improved, and the further compression space of TA processing fees was limited. The absolute price was expected to remain strong supported by PX [1]. - For MEG, the near - end domestic oil - based maintenance was implemented, the start - up rate decreased, Iranian plants were restarting, port inventory decreased due to less arrival and improved shipment, downstream inventory levels increased, basis weakened, and coal - based benefits slightly shrank. In the future, as Iranian and ethane supplies did not decrease and domestic production start - up increased, it would gradually enter the inventory accumulation stage. With low actual inventory and not low valuation, it was expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [5]. - For polyester staple fiber, the near - end production reduction and maintenance led to a decline in the start - up rate to 93.8%, sales weakened, and inventory slightly accumulated. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material inventory remained stable, finished product inventory continued to accumulate, and benefits slightly improved. Exports maintained a high growth rate. There were also production reduction plans in the future, but the implementation of the plans needed further follow - up. Processing fees were expected to remain weak [5]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory remained stable at a relatively low level, but there was no seasonal decline. The price of Thai cup rubber rebounded, and rainfall affected rubber tapping [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Price and Index Data: On July 1, 2025, PTA spot price was 6990, PX CFR was 77.17, etc. The average daily basis of spot transactions for 2509 was +167 [1]. - Device Changes: Yisheng New Materials increased its load for 3.6 million tons, Shandong Weilian shut down for maintenance for 2.5 million tons, and Hengli Dalian restarted for 2.2 million tons [1]. MEG - Price and Index Data: On July 1, 2025, MEG outer - market price was 850, inner - market price was 4328, etc. The basis for 09 was around +68 [5]. - Device Changes: Shaanxi Yueneng's 400,000 - ton single - line was under maintenance [5]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Index Data: On July 1, 2025, the spot price was around 6752, and the market basis for 08 was around +100 [5]. - Device Changes: Zhuocheng reduced production, and Jixing shut down for maintenance, with the start - up rate dropping to 93.8% [5]. Natural Rubber - Price and Index Data: On July 1, 2025, the price of Thai cup rubber was 48.0, the price of Thai glue was 1725, etc. [5] - Main Contradictions: National explicit inventory remained stable at a low level, Thai cup rubber price rebounded, and rainfall affected rubber tapping [5] Benzene and Its Derivatives - Price and Index Data: On July 1, 2025, ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) was 850, pure benzene (CFR China) was 739, etc. [9] - Profit Data: On July 1, 2025, PS domestic profit was - 249, ABS domestic profit was - 926, etc. [9]