Report Overview - The report is a fuel oil morning report released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on July 2, 2025 [1][2] Market Data Rotterdam Market - From June 25 to July 1, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased from 414.85 to 405.07, a change of -0.79; Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased from 468.83 to 460.85, a change of -12.96 [3] Singapore Market - In the Singapore market, from June 25 to July 1, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased from 420.87 to 413.43, a change of -4.53; Singapore 180cst M1 decreased from 428.68 to 421.09, a change of -4.65 [3][12] Domestic Market - For domestic FU, from June 25 to July 1, 2025, FU 01 increased by 5, FU 05 increased by 8, and FU 09 decreased by 11 [4] - For domestic LU, from June 25 to July 1, 2025, LU 01 decreased by -5, LU 05 decreased by -11, and LU 09 increased by 9 [5] Core Views - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated and declined, the near - month spread decreased, and EW weakened rapidly. The 380 8 - 9 month spread dropped to $4.25, the basis fluctuated at a low level, and the FU07 internal - external spread fluctuated at -$5, while the 09 spread fluctuated at +$10. There was a large amount of near - month delivery goods, maintaining a loose pattern [5] - The Singapore 0.5 crack spread rebounded, the month spread dropped to around $5, the basis weakened slightly, and fluctuated at $6. The LU internal - external spread remained strong, with the 09 spread fluctuating around $17 [5][6] - This week, Singapore's on - shore inventory increased, floating storage fluctuated at a high level, low - sulfur floating storage decreased slightly, ARA's on - shore inventory increased slightly, but the inventory was still at the lowest level in the same period of history, floating storage inventory fluctuated, and low - sulfur floating storage increased. Fujairah's on - shore inventory increased significantly, and floating storage decreased slightly [6] - This week, geopolitical risks were resolved. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, Egypt's net imports reached a new high, and the high - sulfur fundamentals were in a fluctuating pattern. Recently, high - sulfur is still in the peak power - generation season, the near - month FU internal - external spread is under pressure, the valuation is low, and the game continues. In the future, pay attention to the shipping situation in the Middle East. The LU internal - external spread is running at a high level, and pay attention to the domestic production situation [6]
燃料油早报-20250702
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-07-02 01:20