大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250702

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, after the sharp drop in oil prices, it has returned to a volatile state. The PTA futures market follows the cost - end fluctuations. Although the PTA's fundamental situation has weakened month - on - month, there is no inventory accumulation. It is expected that the PTA spot price will continue to fluctuate weakly following the cost - end in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the fluctuation of polyester load [5]. - For MEG, at the beginning of July, the arrival of foreign ships is concentrated, and the subsequent visible inventory will gradually increase. The supply at home and abroad is gradually recovering, and the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol will turn to inventory accumulation in the third quarter, with an overall accumulation of about 200,000 tons. The spot liquidity in the market will continue to be released. Recently, the polyester sales have been weak, and the inventory pressure of polyester products has been continuously increasing. Bottle - chip factories will gradually carry out maintenance, and the polyester load will decrease. Although the short - term shutdown of Saudi Arabian plants will boost market sentiment, the overall upward trend lacks sustainability, and the fundamentals cannot provide effective support [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips PTA - Fundamentals: Yesterday, the PTA futures rebounded after a decline. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was light, with few bids, and the spot basis weakened rapidly. The current week and next week's goods were traded around 09 + 160 - 200, with the price negotiation range around 4930 - 5020. There were transactions for mid - to - late July goods at 09 + 160. Today's mainstream spot basis is at 09 + 175 [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4990, the 09 - contract basis is 252, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, which is a bullish signal [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.09 days, a decrease of 0.06 days month - on - month, which is a bullish signal [6]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish signal [6]. - Main Position: The net long position is decreasing, which is a bullish signal [6]. MEG - Fundamentals: On Tuesday, the price of ethylene glycol was consolidating at a low level, and the market negotiation was average. The intraday ethylene glycol market was weakly volatile, and the spot basis strengthened. In the late session, affected by the power - related shutdown of a Saudi Arabian plant, the market buying increased, and the spot basis strengthened to a premium of 75 - 78 yuan/ton over the 09 - contract. In the US - dollar market, the price of ethylene glycol was consolidating within a narrow range. Recent shipments were negotiated at 506 - 508 US dollars/ton, and there were more purchases by traders at low prices [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4328, the 09 - contract basis is 68, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, which is a bullish signal [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 504,700 tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons month - on - month, which is a bullish signal [7]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is a bearish signal [7]. - Main Position: The main net short position is decreasing, which is a bearish signal [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the PTA production capacity, production, supply, and demand have all shown certain changes. For example, in 2025, the PTA production capacity has been increasing, and the production and supply have also changed accordingly. The demand from the polyester industry has also shown a fluctuating trend [10]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the overall operating rate, production, and supply of ethylene glycol have changed. The demand from the polyester industry has also shown a certain trend, and the port inventory has also fluctuated [12]. Price - Related Data - The report provides historical data on bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization rates, inventory, and various price spreads (such as PTA and MEG month - to - month spreads, basis, and spot spreads) from 2020 to 2025 [14][17][21]. Inventory Analysis - It includes the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and various polyester products in different regions and time periods from 2020 to 2025 [40][42][45]. Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - It shows the historical operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [51][55]. Profit Analysis - It includes the production margins of PTA, MEG (in different production methods), polyester fiber short - fibers, and polyester fiber long - fibers from 2022 to 2025 [59][62][65].