大越期货天胶早报-20250702

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall situation of natural rubber is neutral, with market sentiment dominating and short - term trading recommended. The supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rate is at a high level. There are both positive and negative factors in the market [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, foreign spot being strong, domestic inventory rising, and tire operating rate at a high level [6]. - The basis is - 145 (spot price is 13950), indicating a bearish signal [6]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and year - on - year, showing a neutral situation [6]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is a bullish signal [6]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is at a high level. The raw material price is strong, and the spot price is resistant to decline [6][8]. - Inventory: The inventory of the exchange has changed little recently, and the inventory in Qingdao has also changed little recently [16][19]. - Import: The import volume has a seasonal decline [22]. - Downstream Consumption: Automobile production and sales have a seasonal decline, while tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports have a seasonal increase [25][28][31]. 3.3 Basis - The basis widened on July 1st [37]. 3.4 Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 whole latex (not for delivery) decreased on July 1st [10]. 3.5 Multi - Empty Factors - Likely Factors: Downstream consumption is at a high level, raw material prices are strong, and spot prices are resistant to decline [8]. - Negative Factors: Supply is increasing, and the external environment is bearish [8].