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铁矿石早报(2025-7-2)-20250702
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-02 01:29

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply - demand of iron ore is loose, with steel mills' hot metal production starting to decrease, and the monthly arrival level remaining relatively high. The port inventory is increasing, and there are rumors of crude steel production cut policies. The trade war situation is easing. Considering various factors such as basis, inventory, and market expectations, the market is expected to be volatile with a downward bias [2]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Steel mills' hot metal production is decreasing, supply - side arrival levels remain high this month, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory is increasing, there are rumors of crude steel production cut policies, and the trade war is easing, all of which are bearish factors [2]. - Basis: The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 744, with a basis of 35; the spot price of Chaote powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price is 824, with a basis of 115. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - Inventory: Port inventory is 14480.23 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is a neutral factor [2]. - Disk: The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - Main Position: The net position of the main iron ore contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: Domestic demand is decreasing and imports are increasing, so the market is expected to be volatile with a downward bias [2]. 3.2 Factors - Bullish Factors: High hot metal production, decreasing port inventory, and import losses [5]. - Bearish Factors: Increasing future shipments and weak terminal demand [5].