大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250702

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE and PP, the market is expected to be volatile today. The main factors include the cease - fire in the Middle East leading to a decline in crude oil prices, the off - season for demand, weak downstream demand, and the pressure of new capacity, while the industrial inventory is neutral [4][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, and the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April. On June 24, the US announced a cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel, causing crude oil prices to fall. The demand for agricultural films is in the off - season, and the downstream demand for packaging films is weak. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7300 (-20), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 51, and the premium - discount ratio is 0.7%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 50.5 million tons (-5.0), neutral [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is volatile. With the cease - fire in the Middle East, falling crude oil prices, off - season demand, weak downstream demand, and new capacity pressure, the inventory is neutral. It is expected to be volatile today [4]. - Leverage Factors: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are new capacity release and weak demand. The main logic is the game between cost and demand and tariff policies [6]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, in May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, and the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April. After the cease - fire in the Middle East, crude oil prices fell. It is the off - season for downstream demand, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7250 (-0), with overall bearish fundamentals [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 206, and the premium - discount ratio is 2.9%, which is bullish [7]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 58.5 million tons (-2.3), neutral [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is volatile. With the cease - fire in the Middle East, falling crude oil prices, weak downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving, and neutral inventory, it is expected to be volatile today [7]. - Leverage Factors: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factor is weak demand. The main logic is the game between cost and demand and tariff policies [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, apparent consumption, and other indicators of polyethylene have changed. The production capacity growth rate in 2025E is expected to be 20.5% [15]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, apparent consumption, etc. of polypropylene have changed. The production capacity growth rate in 2025E is expected to be 11.0% [17].