原油成品油早报-20250702

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the geopolitical risk premium related to the tense situation in the Middle East fading, oil prices dropped significantly this week. The market is turning to OPEC+ production policy formulation and Trump's decision on reciprocal tariffs, and the US will hold talks with Iran next week. Fundamentally, global oil products were destocked in late June, with the destocking slope slightly exceeding expectations and the inventory being overall neutral to high. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 5.836 million barrels per day in the week of June 20th, currently at the lowest level in the same period of history. The WTI fundamentals are improving, while domestic refinery profits are rebounding and the Dubai monthly spread has strengthened recently. However, OPEC+ is preparing to significantly increase production by 414,000 barrels per day again in August. Overall, the fundamentals are still in the summer peak season, the supply - demand contradiction in the US market is large, and the upward space for absolute prices is limited. Maintain a positive spread trading strategy and pay attention to the impact of tariff policies on absolute prices [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - Saudi Arabia is exporting crude oil at the fastest pace in over a year, with exports increasing by 441,000 barrels per day to 6.36 million barrels per day in June, an increase of about 7%. - US President Trump said he will fill the strategic petroleum reserve when market conditions are right. - Mexico's oil production has dropped to the level of the late 1970s, with exports in June dropping to a record low of 529,000 barrels per day. - Iran was reported to have loaded mines onto ships in the Persian Gulf last month, preparing to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz. - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending June 28th was 680,000 barrels, compared with an expected - 2.257 million barrels and a previous value of - 4.277 million barrels [3][4] 2. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of June 20th, US crude oil exports decreased by 91,000 barrels per day to 4.27 million barrels per day, while domestic production increased by 400 barrels to 13.435 million barrels per day. - The commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 5.836 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a decrease of 1.39%. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.049 million barrels per day, a 1.6% decrease compared to the same period last year. - The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 237,000 barrels to 402.5 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. - The import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves in the US was 5.944 million barrels per day, an increase of 440,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China both increased, and the sales - to - production ratio of local refineries for both gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week, and the comprehensive profits of major refineries and local refineries rebounded [4] 3. Weekly Viewpoints - As the geopolitical risk premium related to the Middle East situation fades, oil prices dropped significantly this week. The market focuses on OPEC+ production policy and Trump's tariff decision, and the US - Iran talks are upcoming. - In late June, global oil products were destocked, with the US commercial crude oil inventory at a historical low in the same period. The WTI fundamentals are improving, and domestic refinery profits are rebounding. - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 414,000 barrels per day in August. The upward space for absolute oil prices is limited, and a positive spread trading strategy is recommended. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies on absolute prices [5]