大越期货原油早报-20250702

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market is concerned about OPEC+ potentially announcing a daily production increase of 411,000 barrels in August at the July 6 meeting, but the improvement in demand prospects from trade agreements partially offsets this impact. Saudi Arabia is exporting crude at the fastest pace in over a year, and the potential for continued production increases is pressuring oil prices upward. Geopolitical concerns from the Houthi attacks on Israel provide some premium. Currently, the crude oil market lacks directional events, and it is expected to remain range - bound in the short - term, with prices moving between 495 - 503. Long - term investment should be on hold [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2508, the fundamentals are neutral; the basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish; inventory data is bearish; the 20 - day moving average is flat with the price below it, which is neutral; as of June 24, the WTI and Brent crude oil main positions are long, with WTI long positions increasing and Brent long positions decreasing, which is neutral. Short - term prices are expected to range between 495 - 503, and long - term investment should be on hold [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Trump said the US may reach a trade agreement with India and is skeptical about a deal with Japan. US Treasury Secretary believes China will speed up the export of rare earth minerals and magnets. - Fed Chairman Powell said the Fed will "wait and learn more" about the impact of tariffs on inflation before cutting interest rates, ignoring Trump's call for an immediate and significant rate cut. He did not rule out a rate cut at the July 29 - 30 meeting. Trump said he has two or three candidates to replace Powell. - Trump said Israel has agreed to the conditions for a 60 - day cease - fire in Gaza, and the plan will be submitted to Hamas. Qatar and Egypt will be responsible for presenting the final proposal [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Focus - Bullish factors: The intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. - Bearish factors: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months; the US has ongoing tense trade relations with other economies; Iran and Israel have reached a cease - fire. - Market drivers: Short - term geopolitical conflicts drive up prices, and in the medium - to - long - term, the market awaits the peak summer demand season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Quotes: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude have changed. Brent crude increased by 0.37 to 67.11 (0.55% increase), WTI crude increased by 0.34 to 65.45 (0.52% increase), SC crude increased by 0.90 to 497.0 (0.18% increase), and Oman crude decreased by 0.39 to 68.22 (- 0.57% decrease) [7]. - Spot Quotes: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude, Shengli crude, and Dubai crude have changed. UK Brent Dtd increased by 0.33 to 68.78 (0.48% increase), WTI increased by 0.34 to 65.45 (0.52% increase), Oman crude decreased by 0.86 to 68.45 (- 1.24% decrease), Shengli crude decreased by 1.22 to 65.38 (- 1.83% decrease), and Dubai crude decreased by 0.55 to 68.32 (- 0.80% decrease) [9]. - Inventory Data: US API crude inventory as of June 28 increased by 680,000 barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 2.257 million barrels. US EIA inventory as of June 20 decreased by 5.836 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 797,000 barrels. Cushing area inventory as of June 20 decreased by 464,000 barrels. As of July 1, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 5.911 million barrels, unchanged [3]. 3.5 Position Data - As of June 24, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds was 232,969, an increase of 1,921. The net long position of Brent crude oil funds was 192,598, a decrease of 80,577 [15][17].