焦煤焦炭早报（2025-7-2）-20250702

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - For coking coal, with the expected continued rise in terminal molten iron and stable demand support, along with improved steel mill profitability and some coke enterprises' limited production due to poor profitability, the current restocking demand remains, but the procurement of raw materials is relatively cautious, and high - priced resources have general transactions. It is expected that the coking coal price may remain stable in the short term [2]. - For coke, with high - stable steel mill开工, increased restocking demand from some steel mills, active purchasing by intermediate speculative traders, smooth coke shipments, and enhanced cost support from the recent price increase of some coking coal, it is expected that coke prices may remain stable in the short term [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal Fundamental Analysis - Part of the mines are resuming production, but the output has not returned to normal. Downstream restocking demand is gradually released, and the inventory in the production area is decreasing. The online auction performance has improved, and the prices of some high - quality resources and previously oversold coal varieties have increased slightly, with a neutral outlook [3]. - The spot price is 940, and the basis is 125.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing a bullish signal [3]. - The total sample inventory of coking coal is 1775.5 million tons, a decrease of 19.3 million tons compared to last week, which is bullish [3]. - The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line, a bullish sign [3]. - The main position of coking coal is net short, with an increase in short positions, a bearish signal [3]. Factors - Bullish factors include the increase in molten iron production and the difficulty in increasing supply [5]. - Bearish factors are the slowdown in the procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and the weak steel prices [5]. Coke Fundamental Analysis - Coke enterprises' production load is basically stable, with some having limited production due to profit losses. With the increasing purchasing enthusiasm of intermediate traders and the continuous warming of steel mill demand, coke enterprises' shipments are smooth, and the inventory has decreased, with a neutral outlook [9]. - The spot price is 1320, and the basis is - 68.5, with the spot at a discount to the futures, a bearish signal [9]. - The total sample inventory of coke is 933.2 million tons, a decrease of 15.2 million tons compared to last week, which is bullish [9]. - The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line, a bullish sign [9]. - The main position of coke is net short, with a decrease in short positions, a bearish signal [9]. Factors - Bullish factors are the increase in molten iron production and the synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [11]. - Bearish factors are the squeezed profit margin of steel mills and the partial overdraft of restocking demand [11]. Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 312 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons compared to last week; coke port inventory is 203.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.1 million tons compared to last week [21]. - Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 669.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.4 million tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 87.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons compared to last week [24]. - Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 774 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 642.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons compared to last week [27]. Other Data - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74%, the same as last week [38]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan compared to last week [42].