Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2540 - 2600. The market is currently neutral, with short - term bullish trends due to low rapeseed meal inventory and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, but also facing uncertainties from the potential increase in Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal nature of demand [9]. - The market is focusing on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected outcome of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is in a range - bound oscillation. The fundamentals show that the low inventory of rapeseed meal and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes support the price, but the non - tariff on Canadian rapeseed limits the upside. The basis is negative, the inventory has increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, the main long positions are increasing, and the price is expected to return to range - bound movement [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with supply in the spot market tightening and demand rising. - Canadian rapeseed production has slightly decreased, and China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing, and the result is uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian production. Geopolitical conflicts may still support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and Volume: The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has slightly narrowed. The rapeseed meal futures and spot prices have shown a downward trend, with the spot price at a relatively high discount [14][16][20]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.1 million tons, up 8.91% week - on - week and down 65.63% year - on - year. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills continues to decline, and the rapeseed meal inventory has reached a low level [9][29]. - Supply and Demand Balance: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets show historical data on harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory [25][26]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal are increasing, and funds are flowing in [9].
大越期货菜粕早报-20250702
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-02 02:50