大越期货豆粕早报-20250702
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-02 02:50
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Bean Meal: The US soybeans are oscillating and rebounding, affected by the rebound of oils and fats and technical consolidation. In the short - term, they are oscillating above the thousand - point mark, awaiting further guidance from China - US tariff negotiations and the growth weather in US soybean - producing areas. Domestic bean meal rose and then fell, influenced by US soybeans and technical consolidation. The increase in imported soybeans arriving in June and the weak spot price suppressed the rebound height of the disk. In the short - term, it returned to the range - bound pattern, with the M2509 contract oscillating between 2920 and 2980 [8]. - Soybeans: The US soybeans are oscillating and rebounding. Domestic soybeans oscillated and declined, affected by the trend of US soybeans. The cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imported ones supported the bottom of the disk, but the peak arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppressed the rebound height of the disk. The A2509 contract oscillated between 4100 and 4200 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - Bean Meal: The fundamentals are neutral. The basis is at a discount, which is bearish. The inventory increased by 35.9% week - on - week and decreased by 34.32% year - on - year, which is bullish. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish. The long positions of the main force increased and the funds flowed out, which is bullish [8]. - Soybeans: The fundamentals are neutral. The basis is at a premium, which is bullish. The inventory increased by 4.37% week - on - week and 17.68% year - on - year, which is bearish. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish. The short positions of the main force decreased and the funds flowed out, which is bearish [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The short - term China - US tariff negotiations are bullish for US soybeans, but the relatively good recent planting weather in the US has led to a short - term decline in the US soybean market. It is expected to oscillate above the thousand - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean planting and growth, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory recovered from a low level, and the oil mill bean meal inventory also recovered from a low level in June. The beans oscillated and declined in the short - term due to the decline of US soybeans. - The reduction in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for bean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price expectations. Coupled with the weakening pressure of the China - US tariff war, bean meal has entered a weak oscillating pattern in the short - term. - The low - level inventory of domestic oil mill bean meal supports short - term price expectations. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war. Bean meal will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short - term, awaiting the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bean Meal: Bullish factors include slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low domestic oil mill bean meal inventory, and uncertainties in US soybean - producing area weather. Bearish factors include the high arrival of imported soybeans in June and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. - Soybeans: Bullish factors include the cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean disk and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand. Bearish factors include the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply - demand Balance Sheets: Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are provided, including data on harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [31][32]. - Sowing and Growth Progress: The sowing and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina in the 2023/24 season, and the sowing, growth, and harvesting progress of soybeans in the US and Brazil in the 2024 and 2024/25 seasons are presented [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - USDA Reports: The monthly supply - demand reports of the USDA in the past six months are provided, including data on harvest area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, exports, and crushing of soybeans [41]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided. 3.6 Other Data - Transaction Data: The transaction data of bean meal and rapeseed meal from June 20 to July 1, including transaction average price and trading volume, are provided [15]. - Price Data: The futures and spot price data of soybeans and bean meal from June 23 to July 1 are provided [17]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: The warehouse receipt data of soybeans and bean meal from June 18 to July 1 are provided [19].