建信期货豆粕日报-20250702

1. Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: July 2, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 2. Market Review and Operational Suggestions 2.1 Market Quotes - Domestic soybean meal futures: For the contracts of soybean meal 2507, 2509, and 2511, the closing prices were 2822, 2961, and 2998 respectively, with changes of -21, +3, and +1, and percentage changes of -0.74%, +0.10%, and +0.03% [6]. - US soybean futures: The main contract of US soybean futures on the outer - market fluctuated around 1020 cents [6]. 2.2 USDA Reports - Area report: The estimated planting area of US soybeans in 2025 was adjusted down to 83.38 million acres, slightly lower than the March estimate. With an estimated harvest area of 82.6 million acres and a yield of 52.5 bushels per acre, the new - crop US soybean production is expected to be 4.337 billion bushels, a 0.7% decrease from this year's 4.366 billion bushels [6]. - Inventory report: The current US soybean inventory increased year - on - year, with the increase exceeding expectations. The combined effect of the area and inventory reports was neutral [6]. 2.3 Impact of Weather on Yields - Current situation: The current excellent - good rate of US soybeans is 66%, slightly lower than last year but still at a moderately high level. Forecasts for the next two weeks indicate above - average rainfall in most production areas, which is beneficial for potential yields [6]. - Yield and inventory scenarios: If the yield rises to 53.2 bushels per acre, the ending inventory will remain at 350 million bushels; if it drops below 51.9 bushels per acre, the ending inventory is expected to fall below 250 million bushels, tightening the supply - demand balance [6]. 2.4 Domestic Market Situation - There are rumors that China has started purchasing Argentine soybean meal, reducing its dependence on US soybeans in the fourth quarter [6]. 2.5 Operational Suggestions - Soybean meal pricing continues to follow CBOT soybeans. In the short term, it is more sensitive to weather. For fourth - quarter contracts, a cautious and bullish approach is recommended after price corrections, with risks related to weather improvement and tariff policies [6]. 3. Industry News 3.1 USDA Quarterly Inventory and Planting Area Survey Report - As of June 1, 2025, the total inventory of old - crop US soybeans was 1.01 billion bushels, a 4% year - on - year increase. Farm inventories were 412 million bushels, a 12% year - on - year decrease, and non - farm inventories were 596 million bushels, an 18% year - on - year increase [7]. - From March to May, soybean consumption was 903 million bushels, a 3% year - on - year increase. The estimated planting area of US soybeans in 2025 was 83.4 million acres, lower than the market expectation of 83.655 million acres and the March planting intention of 83.495 million acres [7]. 3.2 USDA Crop Growth Report - As of the week of June 29, 2025, the excellent - good rate of US soybeans was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 67%. The emergence rate was 94%, the flowering rate was 17%, and the pod - setting rate was 3% [9]. 4. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spread between soybean meal 1 - 5 contracts, 5 - 9 contracts, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, the ex - factory price of soybean meal, and the basis of the soybean meal 09 contract [11][13][14]