建信期货集运指数日报-20250702

Report Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: July 2, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The spot price increase at the end of June was better than expected, with the SCFIS settlement index rising above 2000 points. In July, Maersk quoted $2958 in mid - July, and most other shipping companies' quotes were concentrated in the range of $3300 - $3600, with a median of around $3400. However, the futures market has a weak expectation of price increases. The 08 contract has fallen below 1800 points and is lower than the 06 contract, implying that the market may skip the peak - season price increase and expect the freight rate to drop to a low level after the August peak. Considering the strong resilience of European export demand, stable shipping capacity supply, and the stabilization of quotes and container volumes, the peak - season price increase is difficult to be falsified in the short term and may be supported by fundamentals. Currently, the 08 contract may be undervalued, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities in October (a traditional off - season) and positive spread arbitrage opportunities between 08 - 10 contracts [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - Spot market: The price increase at the end of June was better than expected, with the SCFIS settlement index rising above 2000 points. In July, Maersk's mid - month quote was $2958, and most other shipping companies' quotes were in the $3300 - $3600 range, with a median of about $3400. - Futures market: The market has a weak expectation of price increases. The 08 contract has fallen below 1800 points and is lower than the 06 contract. - Investment suggestions: Due to strong European export demand, stable shipping capacity supply, and the stabilization of quotes and container volumes, the peak - season price increase is difficult to be falsified in the short term and may be supported by fundamentals. The 08 contract may be undervalued, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities in October (a traditional off - season) and positive spread arbitrage opportunities between 08 - 10 contracts [8] 3.2行业要闻 - International news: Iran launched a missile strike on the US military's Al - Udeid Air Base in Qatar. International oil prices dropped by about 9%, and the US stock market rose. Trump thanked Iran for the advance notice and called for peace. There was no sign of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz. - Shipping market news: From June 23 to 27, the overall Chinese export container shipping market was stable, with the comprehensive index slightly declining. European routes saw an increase in spot market booking prices due to good transportation demand; Mediterranean routes had weak fundamentals and slightly falling freight rates; North American routes had stable transportation demand but continued to see falling freight rates. - Geopolitical news: Trump claimed that Iran's key nuclear facilities were "completely destroyed," but Iran said the Fordo nuclear facility was not severely damaged. Iran's parliament considered closing the Strait of Hormuz. China strongly condemned the US attack on Iran's nuclear facilities [9][10] 3.3数据概览 3.3.1集运现货价格 - SCFIS European route (basic ports): On June 30, 2025, it was 2123.24 points, up 186.1 points (9.6%) from June 23. - SCFIS US West route (basic ports): On June 30, 2025, it was 1619.19 points, down 464.27 points (-22.3%) from June 23 [12] 3.3.2集运指数（欧线）期货行情 - Provided the trading data of EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 contracts on July 1, including previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change percentage, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6] 3.3.3航运相关数据走势图 - Included charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][20]