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摩根士丹利:台湾半导体调研观点
2025-07-02 03:15

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is In-Line [7] Core Insights - Robust spending in China is expected to lift WFE (Wafer Fabrication Equipment) estimates, with government subsidies being a primary driver rather than immediate market demand [3][10] - AI-driven demand is strong but faces bottlenecks in back-end test capacity, while the current annual capex of TSMC is around $40 billion, which may sustain AI growth without significant increases in demand from smartphones and PCs [4] - The EDA (Electronic Design Automation) market remains resilient despite proposed export restrictions to China, with potential for EDA companies to resume some licensing deals [5][10] Summary by Sections WFE Equipment - China is aggressively expanding its semiconductor capacity, suggesting upside to FY25 revenue views for ASML and ASM, with China representing a mid-20s percentage of revenue [3] - WFE growth may moderate in the medium term due to bottlenecks in back-end test capacity, while litho intensity is expected to hit an asymptote in the next decade [4][10] EDA & IP - The EDA market is resilient despite export restrictions, with a wide range of potential outcomes regarding China and AI [5][10] - Local Chinese EDA solutions are perceived as limited in competitive threat due to incomplete tool-chains for advanced nodes [11] Power Segment - Power semiconductors are a clear growth area, but adoption of new technologies may remain niche due to cost and infrastructure readiness [12] - Infineon is recognized for its leadership and cautious market strategies, while Chinese firms are aggressively developing high-voltage solutions [12] Notable Highlights - Intel's transformation remains uncertain with significant execution risks under new leadership, while the PC and smartphone markets are subdued [13] - Memory markets are expected to strengthen in the second half of 2025, driven by AI and edge applications [13]