摩根士丹利：半导体-来自中国台湾和北京的要点”

Investment Rating - The long-term industry view for semiconductors is rated as Attractive, with a bullish outlook despite mixed signals for 2026 [3][9]. Core Insights - The supply chain for semiconductors lacks long-term visibility, particularly in AI, although there is optimism for the upcoming year [1][3]. - NVIDIA is identified as a top pick in the semiconductor sector, driven by strong demand for its Blackwell form factors and easing supply bottlenecks [3][10]. - There is skepticism regarding the performance of the semiconductor market in 2026, primarily due to concerns about excess inventory resulting from chip production ahead of supply bottlenecks [3][4]. Summary by Sections AI Market - NVIDIA shows strong near-term performance in AI, but there is uncertainty about the longer-term outlook, particularly in China where demand for certain products is minimal [4][5]. - Chinese hyperscalers are facing challenges post-export controls, with technology at the H20 performance level being competitive but lower performance levels lacking appeal [5][10]. Memory Market - The PC market is described as sluggish, impacting the memory sector, with expectations of weaker follow-through in Q4 after a strong Q3 [9][11]. - DRAM and NAND markets are expected to perform well in the near term, but there is skepticism about sustainability due to weaker volumes in PCs and smartphones [13][14]. Equipment and Foundry - China is anticipated to see stronger equipment spending in the second half of the year, driven by logic customers and state subsidies [16][17]. - KLA is highlighted as a key winner in the equipment sector, benefiting from GAA technology and expanding its market share [17][18]. General Market Conditions - There is limited visibility in broader markets beyond modest near-term pull-forwards, with inventory build being a concern amid tariff uncertainties [19][20]. - The transition to 800V data center architecture faces significant challenges, with skepticism about its near-term implementation [20].