摩根士丹利：2025 年第二季度中期晶圆制造设备最新情况，中国市场回升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the semiconductor capital equipment industry is "In-Line" [4]. Core Insights - The 2025 China WFE (Wafer Fabrication Equipment) forecast has been revised from a decline of 12% year-over-year to a decline of 3%, with the 2025/2026 WFE forecast adjusted from $104 billion/$109 billion to $109 billion/$110 billion [1][10]. - China is expected to show stronger performance in the second half of 2025 compared to the first half, despite previous concerns about the sustainability of WFE demand due to low utilization rates outside major players [2][11]. - Equipment imports into China decreased by 4% year-over-year from January to May 2025, but are anticipated to pick up starting in July, mirroring the growth seen in the second half of 2024 [2][11]. Summary by Sections WFE Forecast - The WFE revenue forecast for 2025 has been increased to $109 billion (up 6% year-over-year) from $104 billion, while the 2026 forecast is slightly raised to $110 billion (up 1%) from $109 billion [1][4]. - The WFE revenue for 2025 is projected to be $109,058 million, with a year-over-year change of 6% [7]. Company-Specific Revisions - Revenue contributions from TSMC for KLA and AMAT have been revised upwards for 2025 and 2026, with KLA's contribution increasing from $2.65 billion/$2.96 billion to $2.76 billion/$3.05 billion, and AMAT's from $5.60 billion/$5.26 billion to $5.93 billion/$5.38 billion [3][22]. - The revenue forecast for KLA in 2025 has been adjusted from $12.1 billion to $12.3 billion, and for AMAT from $28.3 billion to $28.7 billion [22][27]. Market Dynamics - The semiconductor capital equipment market is expected to see a significant uptick in demand driven by logic customers in China, with the region remaining the largest for WFE demand despite challenges [10][15]. - The overall sentiment indicates that state-subsidy-induced spending in China will continue to support equipment purchases, even with low utilization rates among smaller players [21][19]. Regional Insights - The WFE by region shows that China will continue to dominate the market, with significant contributions expected from Taiwan and Korea as well [9][17]. - The forecast indicates that while Taiwan and Korea will drive growth, China remains the largest region for WFE demand [15][17].