摩根士丹利：中国追踪行业风险-5 月数据走弱会导致风险上升吗？

Investment Rating - The industry view is rated as Attractive [6] Core Insights - Despite weaker May industrial profit growth, the incremental impact on industrial credit risks is considered small due to concentrated profit deterioration in a few sectors affected by US tariffs, a notable decline in US tariffs from their peak, and modest negative impacts on EBIT interest coverage [2][4] - More sectors are slowing capacity expansion, with ferrous metal processing showing a 1.6% year-on-year decline in fixed asset investment in May 2025, down from 5.4% growth in the first half of 2024, indicating continued capacity control [3] - Year-to-date industrial sector profit fell by 1.1% year-on-year in May compared to a 1.4% decline in April, primarily driven by mining, especially oil mining [4] - Risks associated with loans to the auto sector are emerging as a concern, representing 40% of sectors showing expanding capacity with deteriorating profits, which is the largest drag on year-on-year profit growth in manufacturing firms [5] - Overall manufacturing sector profit growth moderated to 5.4% year-on-year in January-May 2025 from 8.6% in January-April 2025, influenced by the peak in US tariffs [9] Summary by Sections - Industrial Credit Risks: The report indicates that the impact of weaker industrial profit growth on credit risks is limited, with specific sectors being more affected by US tariffs [2][4] - Capacity Expansion: A significant portion of sectors is reducing capacity expansion, with ferrous metals showing a decline in fixed asset investment, suggesting effective capacity control measures [3] - Profit Trends: The industrial sector's profit has seen a slight decline year-to-date, with mining being a major contributor to this trend, while the auto sector poses new risks due to its expanding capacity and declining profits [4][5] - Manufacturing Sector Performance: The overall profit growth in the manufacturing sector has slowed, reflecting the broader economic impacts of trade tensions and tariff fluctuations [9]