Investment Rating - The industry view for Semiconductor Production Equipment is rated as Attractive [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift towards CoPoS (Chip-on-Panel-on-Substrate) technology, with TSMC investing in a pilot line for 310mm² substrates, indicating a growing trend in the industry [4][9]. - ASE Technology has introduced a 2.3D package technology using 300mm² substrates, suggesting a contraction in substrate sizes from the previously defined standards [5]. - The anticipated timeline for equipment deliveries to pilot lines for 310mm² PLP is set for mid-2026, with large-scale investment decisions expected by mid-2027 [10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The WFE market (excluding lithography) is projected to grow by 5% YoY in 2025, driven by investments from Chinese manufacturers and improved yields for logic makers [22]. - The report indicates a potential contraction of the WFE market by 4% YoY in 2025 due to a slowdown in the Chinese market, although investments in flash memory are expected to resume in the latter half of the year [23]. Company Performance - SCREEN Holdings has raised its price target from ¥13,600 to ¥13,800, reflecting an optimistic outlook on earnings growth driven by the adoption of 310mm² substrates [6][11]. - The earnings forecast for SCREEN Holdings has been adjusted, with projected PLP-related sales increasing to ¥5 billion for F3/27 and ¥7 billion for F3/28 [11]. Financial Projections - Operating profit for SCREEN Holdings is expected to reach ¥135.7 billion in 2025, with a gross margin of 37.6% [29]. - EPS is forecasted to be ¥1,155.5 for the base year F3/28, which is anticipated to be the next earnings peak [18][22]. Market Dynamics - The report identifies key beneficiaries of the shift to smaller substrates, including Disco, Screen HD, and Ulvac, which are expected to see increased orders for CoPoS technology [9][11]. - The demand for cleaning systems remains strong, contributing positively to the overall market outlook for SCREEN Holdings [18].
摩根士丹利:从芯片晶圆基板封装(CoWoS)到面板级基板上芯片封装(CoPoS)
2025-07-02 03:15