建信期货镍日报-20250702

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: July 2, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core View - Shanghai nickel remained strong above the 120,000 mark, with the total index position decreasing by 3,110 to 149,735 lots. The spot premium adjusted slightly, with the Jinchuan premium at 2,600 yuan/ton and the domestic mainstream brand electrowinning nickel spot premium at -100 - 400 yuan/ton. The support from the ore end declined, and the subsequent ore price may weaken further. The nickel iron plant still faced pressure, and the nickel iron price was in a dilemma. The nickel salt end also performed poorly. Benefiting from the warming macro - atmosphere and the high elasticity of nickel prices at low levels, Shanghai nickel returned above the 120,000 mark, but the rebound space of nickel prices may be limited. Previous long positions could be appropriately reduced, and a rolling operation strategy should be maintained [9]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Shanghai nickel remained strong above 120,000, with the total index position decreasing by 3,110 to 149,735 lots. The spot premium adjusted slightly, with the Jinchuan premium at 2,600 yuan/ton and the domestic mainstream brand electrowinning nickel spot premium at -100 - 400 yuan/ton [9]. - Ore End: The support from the Indonesian nickel ore end decreased. The HMA decline in the first half of July led to a downward adjustment of the nickel ore benchmark price HPM, and the domestic red - soil nickel ore premium also loosened. The subsequent ore price may weaken further [9]. - Nickel Iron: Nickel iron plants faced pressure, with high costs and weakening prices. Stainless steel plants were sluggish, with reduced production and high inventories, only maintaining rigid demand for raw materials. The nickel iron price was in a dilemma [9]. - Nickel Salt: The price of nickel sulfate has not stopped falling [9]. - Operation Suggestions: Due to the warming macro - atmosphere and the high elasticity of nickel prices at low levels, Shanghai nickel returned above 120,000. However, considering the weak performance of each link in the industrial chain, the rebound space of nickel prices may be limited. Previous long positions could be appropriately reduced, and a rolling operation strategy should be maintained [9]. 2. Industry News - Bulgaria: Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh. It was developed by Advance Green Energy AD and completed in six months with local government support, breaking the previous domestic record [10][11]. - Turkey: A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact and almost no silver, with silver usage below 0.5 mg/W, achieving almost the same efficiency as traditional silver - contact cells. This innovation can significantly reduce production costs [11]. - UK: Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland. It is the tenth approved project in the past 17 months, with the total approved energy storage capacity exceeding 1.6 GW. The project will help Scotland achieve its energy and emission reduction goals [11].