广发期货《黑色》日报-20250702

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: Steel maintains a pattern of cost drag and weak demand expectations. The end of coking coal supply disruptions and the verification of future startup data are awaited. Iron ore inventory remains flat, and its valuation depends on finished product demand. Short - term Tangshan production restrictions may interfere with the market. Observe the pressure around 3150 for hot - rolled coils and 3050 for rebar [1]. - Iron Ore: The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated weakly yesterday. This week, global iron ore shipments decreased, and the arrival volume at ports dropped significantly. The demand side has high - level pig iron production, but there is a risk of weakening terminal demand in the off - season. In the future, pig iron production in July is expected to decline, and iron ore may turn to a moderately weak operation in the short term. A short - selling strategy is recommended for the 09 contract [5]. - Coke: As of yesterday's close, coke futures oscillated downward, and the spot market remained stable. After the fourth round of price cuts, the market is showing signs of a bottom. Supply may increase, demand will decline slightly, and inventory is at a medium level. A hedging strategy is recommended for the 2601 contract, and speculative investors are advised to wait and see [6]. - Coking Coal: As of yesterday's close, coking coal futures oscillated downward, and the spot market was moderately strong. The domestic coking coal market is showing signs of stabilization, and the supply may increase. The demand has some resilience, and inventory is at a medium level. A hedging strategy is recommended for the 2601 contract, and speculative investors are advised to wait and see [6]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - Prices and Spreads: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices were mostly stable, with some minor fluctuations. Futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil had small increases. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [1]. - Cost and Profit: The cost of steel billets and slabs remained unchanged. The cost of electric - arc furnace and converter rebar in Jiangsu had different trends, and the profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions had varying degrees of increase [1]. - Production and Inventory: The daily average pig iron production decreased slightly, and the production of five major steel products increased. The inventory of five major steel products increased slightly, the rebar inventory decreased slightly, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased slightly [1]. - Demand: The daily average building materials trading volume decreased, and the apparent demand for five major steel products and hot - rolled coils decreased, while the apparent demand for rebar increased slightly [1]. Iron Ore - Prices and Spreads: The cost of iron ore warehouse receipts, spot prices, and price indices all decreased. The spreads between different contracts also changed [5]. - Supply and Demand: The global iron ore shipment volume decreased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports dropped significantly. The demand side had high - level pig iron production, and the daily average port ore removal volume increased [5]. - Inventory: The inventory at 45 ports and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased, and the number of available days of inventory for 64 steel mills remained unchanged [5]. Coke and Coking Coal - Prices and Spreads: Coke futures prices oscillated downward, and the spot market remained stable. Coking coal futures prices also oscillated downward, and the spot market was moderately strong. The basis and spreads of coke and coking coal changed, and the profits of coking plants and coal mines decreased [6]. - Supply: The production of coke and coking coal had different trends. After the end of environmental inspections in June, the supply of coking coal is expected to increase [6]. - Demand: The demand for coke and coking coal is expected to decline slightly in July, with pig iron production remaining at 230 - 240 tons per day [6]. - Inventory: The inventory of coke and coking coal showed different trends. Coke inventory decreased, and coking coal inventory was at a medium level with different parts showing different changes [6].