瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250702

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows an upward trend in the futures market, with the main contract closing price rising by 3.19%. However, the fundamental situation remains one of excessive supply and weak demand, and the industrial inventory is at a high level. The upstream and downstream are in a price - based game. In the option market, the sentiment is bullish. The operation suggestion is to short at high positions with a light position and control risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 63,960 yuan/ton, up 1,180 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 54,211 lots, up 7,329 lots; the position of the main contract is 325,574 lots, down 1,102 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 280 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 23,180 lots, up 240 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 61,650 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 60,050 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 2,310 yuan/ton, down 830 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 694 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 5,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,600 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 42,100 tons, down 5,800 tons; the monthly import volume is 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons; the monthly export volume is 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, down 6 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 123,500 MWh, up 5,300 MWh [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 55%, up 2 percentage points; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 49%, up 2 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,270,000 units, up 19,000 units; the monthly sales volume is 1,307,000 units, up 81,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 43.99%, up 1.25 percentage points; the monthly export volume is 212,000 units, up 12,000 units [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 176,320 lots, up 9,019 lots; the total put position is 85,766 lots, down 831 lots; the put - call ratio of total positions is 48.64%, down 3.119 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.22%, down 0.0121 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In June, BYD's sales volume was 382,500 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%; Leapmotor's delivery volume was 48,006 units, a year - on - year increase of over 138%; Seres' sales volume was 46,086 units, a year - on - year increase of 4.44%; Li Auto's delivery volume was 36,279 units, a year - on - year decrease of 24%; XPeng's delivery volume was 34,611 units, a year - on - year increase of 224%; Xiaomi's delivery volume exceeded 25,000 units; NIO's delivery volume was 24,925 units, a year - on - year increase of 17.5% [2]. - Chilean state - owned copper giant Codelco has obtained the lithium mining quota approval from the country's nuclear energy regulatory agency CCHEN, which will allow its joint venture with SQM to mine lithium resources equivalent to 2.5 million tons of lithium metal (LME) from 2031 to 2060, and up to 3.02 million tons if environmental permits are obtained [2]. - Jinan will conduct a new - energy vehicle consumption subsidy program from July 1 to July 31, with a total subsidy of 12 million yuan [2].