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瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250702
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-02 09:45

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting to tap rubber. In the Yunnan producing area, there are still weather disturbances, with strong resistance in raw material procurement and firm procurement prices. In the Hainan producing area, there is excessive precipitation, hindering the progress of rubber tapping operations, and the increase in raw material supply on the island is slow, lower than the same period in previous years. Supported by rigid delivery demand, local processing plants maintain a price - increasing state for raw material procurement [2] - Recently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate significantly. The bonded warehouse has a slight reduction in inventory, while the general trade warehouse continues to accumulate inventory significantly. Downstream enterprises mainly continue to digest inventory. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week showed mixed trends. Some semi - steel tire enterprises arranged production suspension due to external factors, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire enterprises. The operation of all - steel tire enterprises was mostly stable, and the overall capacity utilization rate increased slightly due to the resumption of production of some previously overhauled enterprises. Some enterprises have short - term overhaul plans, which will drag down the overall capacity utilization rate, and the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is still expected to decline [2] - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,500 in the short term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,500 in the short term [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 14,125 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 35 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 12,275 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is 15 yuan/ton, and the 8 - 9 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 860 yuan/ton. The difference between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 65 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 156,685 lots, a decrease of 2,925 lots; the trading volume of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 38,945 lots, a decrease of 1,630 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber are - 286 lots, and the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber are - 139 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 189,150 tons, a decrease of 2,670 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 27,418 tons, an increase of 201 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,000 yuan/ton, the price of Vietnamese 3L is 14,550 yuan/ton, the price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,730 US dollars/ton, and the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,730 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 13,950 yuan/ton, and the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 13,900 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,900 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu Petrochemical butadiene BR9000 is 11,700 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is - 8.2 US dollars/ton, and the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 137.4 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 14.82 million tons, a decrease of 3.86 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 22.23 million tons, a decrease of 2.64 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.64%, an increase of 0.16 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 78.05%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 41.93 days, an increase of 0.04 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 48.15 days, an increase of 0.73 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1,182,000 pieces, a decrease of 126,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5,415,000 pieces, a decrease of 124,000 pieces [2] Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 17.36%, a decrease of 0.64 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 22.84%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.82%, an increase of 0.86 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.82%, an increase of 0.86 percentage points [2] Industry News - From June 29 to July 5, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased slightly compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator were mainly concentrated in sporadic areas such as southern Cambodia and northern Vietnam, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, with a slightly reduced impact on rubber tapping. The red areas south of the equator were mainly distributed in southeastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, with little change in the impact on rubber tapping [2] - As of June 29, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,800 tons, an increase of 2.40%. The bonded area inventory was 80,700 tons, a decrease of 0.62%; the general trade inventory was 551,400 tons, an increase of 2.85%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.39 percentage points, and the delivery rate decreased by 0.18 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.58 percentage points, and the delivery rate increased by 0.28 percentage points [2] - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a slight increase of 4% from May this year, and an increase of about 29% compared with 71,400 vehicles in the same period last year. Cumulatively, from January to June this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2]