Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai Copper fluctuates at a high level, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index continues to operate in the negative range, but the long - term contract TC has improved, and the tight supply of copper concentrates has eased. The supply is stable with a slight increase, but domestic supply has tightened due to increased export intentions. The demand is seasonally weak, leading to low trading activity in the spot market. Social inventory remains stable at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals are in a situation of stable and slightly increasing supply and temporarily weak demand, and the copper ore supply is expected to improve. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis with a converging red column. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Copper is 80,540 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,937 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 190 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai Copper is 223,122 lots, down 861 lots. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai Copper are 5,895 lots, down 8,048 lots. The LME copper inventory is 91,250 tons, up 625 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 81,550 tons, down 19,264 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of cathode copper is 25,097 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 80,990 yuan/ton, up 785 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 80,955 yuan/ton, up 710 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 49 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 30 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 450 yuan/ton, up 885 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 116.30 dollars/ton, down 65.39 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 44.81 dollars/kiloton, down 0.03 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 71,250 yuan/metal ton, up 690 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 71,950 yuan/metal ton, up 690 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north, it is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper is 125.40 million tons, and the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 56,090 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,250 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 209.60 million tons, up 1.50 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 2,039.86 billion yuan, up 631.69 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 36,233.84 billion yuan, up 8,504.27 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,235,000,000 pieces, up 68,000,000 pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Copper is 9.21%, down 0.15%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.43%, down 0.03%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money options is 15.91%, up 0.0168. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 1.68, up 0.0444 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - From January to May this year, the added value of large - scale light industry enterprises increased by 7% year - on - year, with an operating income of 9.27 trillion yuan. The retail sales of furniture products increased by 21.4% year - on - year, and that of household appliances and audio - visual equipment increased by 30.2% year - on - year. In June, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than that in May. In June, BYD's sales volume was 382,500 vehicles, up 11.9% year - on - year; Leapmotor's delivery volume was 48,006 vehicles, up more than 138% year - on - year; Seres' sales volume was 46,086 vehicles, up 4.44% year - on - year; Li Auto's delivery volume was 36,279 vehicles, down 24% year - on - year; XPeng Motors' delivery volume was 34,611 vehicles, up 224% year - on - year. Xiaomi Auto's delivery volume exceeded 25,000 vehicles, and NIO's delivery volume was 24,925 vehicles, up 17.5% year - on - year. The Fed Chairman Powell said that the Fed might adopt a more accommodative monetary policy without Trump's tariff policy. He did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, and most Fed members expect another rate cut later this year. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in June rose to 49, still in the contraction range for four consecutive months, with new orders decreasing for five consecutive months and the price - paid index approaching the highest level since June 2022, indicating a slight acceleration of inflation [2].
沪铜产业日报-20250702
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-02 09:45