瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250702

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460 yuan/ton in the short - term. The recent domestic methanol production has a slight increase as the output of restored capacity is more than that of overhauled and reduced - production capacity. The enterprise inventory has rapidly accumulated this week due to the unexpected recovery of some olefin plants in the northwest region while the supporting methanol plants operate normally. The port inventory has a narrow - range fluctuation, with the East China region accumulating inventory and the South China region reducing inventory. The domestic methanol - to - olefin industry's operating rate has declined slightly last week and may continue to decrease as the second - phase of Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin is expected to shut down for maintenance this week [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2404 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 30 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 736,161 lots, down 20,566 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 89,335 lots, up 13,136 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,885, unchanged [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2460 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1990 yuan/ton, up 47.5 yuan/ton. The East - West price difference is 470 yuan/ton, down 107.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 56 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 283 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 350 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 259 euros/ton, down 2 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 67 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.42 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.04 US dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 49.6 tons, up 5.9 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 17.45 tons, up 2.51 tons. The methanol import profit is 67.74 yuan/ton, down 222.49 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 129.23 tons, up 50.46 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 341,600 tons, down 25,800 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.31%, up 2.66 percentage points [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 48.95%, down 1.44 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 9.16%, up 0.5 percentage points. The operating rate of acetic acid is 95.35%, up 7.02 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE is 64.4%, up 0.69 percentage points. The operating rate of olefins is 87.41%, down 1.81 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 940 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 29.35%, down 0.58 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 25.04%, down 0.27 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options is 17.08%, down 2.51 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of July 2, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 352,300 tons, up 10,700 tons or 3.14% from the previous period; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered are 241,300 tons, up 500 tons or 0.23% from the previous period. The inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 673,700 tons, up 3,200 tons from the previous data. As of June 26, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants is 87.96%, down 1.12 percentage points [3]