瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20250702

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Alumina: The alumina market is in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand. The price of bauxite provides some cost support. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows an upward - moving trend. It is recommended to conduct light - position trading and control risks [2]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum market has relatively stable supply. Short - term demand is affected by the off - season, but long - term demand is expected to improve. The option market sentiment is bullish. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows a potential downward trend. It is suggested to conduct light - position short - term long trading at low prices and control risks [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The cast aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with continuous inventory accumulation. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows a weakening upward trend. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading at low prices and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Aluminum Futures: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,635 yuan/ton, with a flat change. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote is 2,602 dollars/ton, up 4.5 dollars. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.93, down 0.01 [2]. - Alumina Futures: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,071 yuan/ton, up 126 yuan. The main contract position decreased by 4,814 hands [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 19,885 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The main contract position increased by 391 hands [2]. Spot Market - Aluminum Spot: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 20,810 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous market AOO aluminum price is 20,720 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan. The basis of electrolytic aluminum is 175 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - Alumina Spot: The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,080 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of alumina is 9 yuan/ton, down 126 yuan [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy Spot: The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in the country is 20,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 215 yuan/ton, down 495 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Alumina: The production volume is 748.80 million tons, up 16.50 million tons. The demand is 720.02 million tons, up 26.32 million tons. The supply - demand balance is - 25.26 million tons, down 15.33 million tons. The import volume is 6.75 million tons, up 5.68 million tons, and the export volume is 21.00 million tons, down 5.00 million tons [2]. - Aluminum Scrap: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan is 16,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. China's import volume of aluminum scrap is 159,700.92 tons, down 30,651.64 tons, and the export volume is 72.44 tons, up 35.90 tons [2]. Industry Situation - Electrolytic Aluminum: The total production capacity is 4,520.20 million tons, up 2.00 million tons. The production volume is not mentioned separately. The import volume is 223,095.59 tons, down 27,381.21 tons, and the export volume is 32,094.07 tons, up 18,421.29 tons. The social inventory is 42.20 million tons, down 0.20 million tons [2]. - Aluminum Products: The production volume is 576.20 million tons, down 0.20 million tons. The export volume of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products is 55.00 million tons, up 3.00 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - Automobile: The production volume is 264.20 million vehicles, up 3.80 million vehicles [2]. - Real Estate: The national real estate prosperity index is 93.72, down 0.13 [2]. Option Situation The purchase - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.25, up 0.0183 compared with the previous period. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum main contract is 9.69%, up 0.0056 [2]. Industry News - China's light industry has achieved growth in the first five months of this year. The manufacturing PMI in June has rebounded [2]. - Automobile sales in June showed different trends among different brands [2]. - The Fed Chairman mentioned the possibility of interest - rate cuts, and the US manufacturing PMI in June was still in the contraction range [2].