瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20250702

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term production changes are expected to be small due to temporary enterprise malfunctions. Agricultural demand is currently lukewarm, with fertilizer preparation for top - dressing continuing next week. Domestic industrial demand is weakening, and the operating rate of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises continues to decline. The company is promoting autumn pre - sales, and raw material prices are stabilizing. The overall utilization rate of production capacity remains low due to more maintenance and sporadic production plans. This week, domestic urea enterprise inventories continued to decline with a larger decline, and the speed of urea gathering at ports has accelerated. With the promotion of local agricultural demand in China, the high - level inventory of urea enterprises has decreased. Urea is still in the port - gathering stage, domestic demand is slowly postponed, and it is expected that urea enterprises may continue to reduce inventory. It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1730 - 1770 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1739 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 price difference is 41 yuan/ton, down 4889 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 223,883 lots, down 14,144 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 21,281. The number of exchange warehouse receipts is 500, unchanged [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1790 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Henan, it is 1780 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 1800 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Shandong, it is 1790 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Anhui, it is 1810 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the main contract is 51 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton. The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 425 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price at the main port in China is 405 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 38.1 million tons, up 8.6 million tons; enterprise inventory is 109.59 million tons, down 4.01 million tons. The operating rate of urea enterprises is 85.78%, down 2.5 percentage points; the daily output of urea is 198,600 tons, down 5,800 tons. The export volume of urea is 0, unchanged. The monthly output of urea is 6,293,230 tons, up 448,150 tons [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 30.11%, down 1.71 percentage points; the operating rate of melamine is 63.21%, down 1.11 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 173 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 405 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 4.809 million tons, down 1.0417 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 31,400 tons, down 600 tons [3] 3.5 Industry News - As of July 2, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0185 billion tons, a decrease of 774,000 tons from last week, a year - on - year decrease of 7.06%. As of June 26, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 381,000 tons, an increase of 86,000 tons from the previous week, a year - on - year increase of 29.15%. As of June 26, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3902 billion tons, a decrease of 405,000 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 2.83%. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises was 85.78%, a decrease of 2.50 percentage points from the previous period, and the trend changed from rising to falling [3] 3.6 Suggested Focus - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [3]