瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20250702

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On July 1, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission emphasized the in - depth promotion of the construction of a unified national market and the governance of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises. The news of "emission reduction and production limitation in Tangshan from July 4th to 15th" boosted the steel market. The RB2510 contract's 1 - hour MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA are above the 0 - axis with an enlarged red column. The operation suggestion is to be bullish with oscillations, and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,065.00 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan; the position volume is 2,226,379 lots, up 150,312 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is 32,001 lots, up 28,107 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread is - 14 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 25,270 tons, up 656 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread is 126 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,180.00 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Hangzhou (actual weight) is 3,262 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,190.00 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) is 3,150.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The RB main contract basis is 115.00 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou is 50.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port is 706.00 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei is 1,265.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 2,920.00 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The domestic iron ore port inventory is 13,930.23 million tons, up 36.07 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants is 73.81 million tons, down 7.31 million tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills is 627.51 million tons, down 6.50 million tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan is 77.26 million tons, up 8.00 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.84%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.85%, up 0.04% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar of sample steel mills is 217.84 million tons, up 5.66 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of sample steel mills for rebar is 47.75%, up 1.25%. The weekly inventory of rebar in sample steel mills is 185.60 million tons, up 3.28 million tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 363.40 million tons, down 5.35 million tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 67.71%, unchanged; the monthly output of domestic crude steel is 8,655 million tons, up 53 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars is 1,730 million tons, up 42 million tons; the monthly net export volume of steel is 1,010.00 million tons, up 16.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.72, down 0.13; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion is 3.70%, down 0.30%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion is - 10.70%, down 0.40%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is 5.60%, down 0.20%. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 625,020 million square meters, down 4,704 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 23,184 million square meters, down 5,348 million square meters; the unsold housing area is 41,264.00 million square meters, up 439.00 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 1, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission pointed out the in - depth promotion of the construction of a unified national market with the basic requirements of "five unifications and one opening", and emphasized the governance of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises and the withdrawal of backward production capacity. As of June 30, 27 cities have introduced 34 real - estate market relaxation policies, and some housing provident fund policies have been optimized [2]. 4. Key Points of Attention - The weekly output, mill inventory, and social inventory data of rebar on Thursday [2].