瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20250702

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the short - term, the supply decreases as farmers hold back on sales and reduce the average weight of pigs for sale at the beginning of the month. However, there is a risk of delayed supply in the third quarter due to the increasing sow production capacity. - On the demand side, high temperatures dampen consumers' willingness to buy pork, leading to slower sales at the retail level and a decline in the slaughterhouse operating rate. - Overall, the short - term supply reduction and the entry of second - fattening buyers boost the near - term hog prices. The main 2509 contract has risen by over 3%, reaching a two - month high. The practice of holding back pigs and second - fattening causes supply delays, resulting in a pattern where near - term prices are strong and long - term prices are weak. [2] 3. Summary of Relevant Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for hogs is 14,340 yuan/ton, up 475 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 83,925 lots, an increase of 5,729 lots. - The number of warehouse receipts is 450 lots, a decrease of 375 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures traders is - 7,608 lots, an increase of 1,304 lots. - The hog basis is 860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 375 yuan. [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of hogs in Henan Zhumadian, Jilin Siping, and Guangdong Yunfu are 15,200 yuan/ton, 14,800 yuan/ton, and 17,100 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 100 yuan/ton, 100 yuan/ton, and 400 yuan/ton. [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly hog inventory is 41,7310 thousand heads, a decrease of 1,0120 thousand heads. The inventory of breeding sows is 4,0420 thousand heads, an increase of 40 thousand heads. - The year - on - year CPI is - 0.1%, unchanged from the previous value. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,840 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The spot price of corn is 2,436.67 yuan/ton, up 0.4 yuan. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's hog feed cost index is 949.31, down 7.35. - The monthly feed production is 27.621 million tons, an increase of 0.981 million tons. The price of binary breeding sows is 1,640 yuan/head, unchanged. - The weekly profit from purchasing piglets for fattening is - 131.71 yuan/head, an increase of 55.08 yuan. The weekly profit from self - breeding and self - fattening is 50.25 yuan/head, an increase of 30.85 yuan. - The monthly pork import volume is 90 thousand tons, an increase of 10 thousand tons. The average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas is 13 yuan/kg, unchanged. [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises is 3,2160 thousand heads, an increase of 1390 thousand heads. - The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry amount to 457.82 billion yuan, an increase of 41.12 billion yuan. [2] Industry News - According to the sample data of key breeding enterprises from Shanghai Ganglian, on July 2, 2025, the daily hog slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises nationwide was 233,860 heads, a 6.51% increase from the previous day. [2]