瑞银：半导体及半导体设备_第 232 条款与出口管制 - BIS局长通话要点

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the semiconductor industry but highlights potential tariff impacts and export controls that could influence investment decisions. Core Insights - The report indicates that tariff headlines related to Section 232 are expected to emerge within the next 4-6 weeks, with potential tariffs of 25% on final products like electronics, while allowing for offsets for U.S. originated content [2][6] - A complete ban on semiconductor equipment exports to China is deemed improbable, with a more realistic approach being the broadening of export controls on semiconductor materials [7][8] - The Trump administration may be more open to negotiating export controls with China compared to the Biden administration, which could lead to easing restrictions for companies like NVIDIA [8] Summary by Sections Section 232 Investigation - The timeline for the Section 232 investigation has been accelerated, with final remedies expected by late July or August, a significant shift from previous expectations [6] - The most likely outcome of the investigation is a blanket tariff on electronics, applied on top of existing country-specific tariffs, without initial content exemptions [6] Export Controls - The Trump administration may consider easing export controls on China, potentially in exchange for access to critical minerals [7] - The current administration is not actively enforcing the AI Diffusion rule, which may be replaced by bilateral agreements [7] Market Implications - The report suggests that headline risks from the Section 232 investigation remain elevated, but some measures may be negotiated down [8] - NVIDIA is identified as a potential beneficiary of any easing of export controls, especially if concessions are part of a larger U.S.-China trade agreement [8]