HIKVISION(SZ:002415)2025-07-02 15:49Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology is Neutral, with a target price of Rmb30.000, indicating an expected share price return of 8.5% and an expected total return of 11.6% including a dividend yield of 3.1% [2][15]. Core Insights - The Canadian government's ban on Hikvision's operations is expected to have a limited revenue impact, as current revenue exposure from Canada is less than 1%, and developed markets account for approximately 10% of total revenue [1][4]. - The valuation target of Rmb30 is based on a 20.2x NTM PE, reflecting the company's leading position in the surveillance camera market and its growing innovation business, while also considering uncertain growth in the SMBG segment and geopolitical risks [4][1]. Summary by Sections Revenue Impact - The Canadian government's request for Hikvision to cease operations is primarily due to national security concerns, but the overall revenue impact is expected to be limited due to low exposure in Canada and developed markets [1]. Valuation - The target price of Rmb30 is justified by the company's historical average PE ratio and its strong market position, despite potential risks from competition and geopolitical factors [4]. Market Position - Hikvision maintains a leading position in the surveillance camera market, supported by ongoing innovation, which is crucial for sustaining growth amid external challenges [4].