Report Information - Report Date: July 3, 2025 [2] - Industry: Treasury Bonds [1] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - After the month - end, the funds continued to be loose, and treasury bond futures recovered and rose. The yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined across the board. The short - end declined by 1 - 2bp, and the long - end fluctuated less than 1bp. The funds became looser after the quarter - end, and there was a net withdrawal in the open market. In July, short - term bond varieties in the bond market may have more certainty. The short - term 2 - year and 5 - year varieties may perform relatively better [8][9][11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Treasury bond futures recovered and rose due to loose funds. The yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined across the board, with the short - end down 1 - 2bp and the long - end fluctuating less than 1bp. The 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 yield reported 1.6385%, down 0.35bp [8][9] - Funding Market: After the quarter - end, funds became looser, and there was a net withdrawal in the open market. There were 3653 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 985 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2668 billion yuan. Short - term inter - bank fund rates declined across the board [10] - Conclusion: In July, short - term bond varieties in the bond market may have more certainty. Although the marginal slowdown of export rush still supports the economy, the progress of tariff negotiations is slow but there is no further conflict escalation. The tone of the Politburo meeting in July may continue that of April, and the policy stimulus may be limited. The supply pressure in July has increased significantly, but there is a possibility that the central bank will restart treasury bond trading, which may support the stable and loose funding situation. The short - term 2 - year and 5 - year varieties may perform relatively better [11][12] 2. Industry News - The Minister of Finance called on developed countries to fulfill official development assistance commitments and climate financing obligations, improve the voice of developing countries in the international financial architecture, and promote trade and investment liberalization and facilitation [13] - Sichuan Province issued measures to support urban village and dilapidated building renovation projects to seek central budget investment and special bonds, and strive for central budget investment and ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds [13] - In June, the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all rebounded, indicating that China's economic prosperity remained in the expansion range [13] - The central bank's monetary policy committee suggested increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation and improving its forward - looking, targeted, and effectiveness. It also proposed to increase the revitalization of existing commercial housing and land [14] - A central bank monetary policy committee member said that virtual assets, digital assets, and traditional financial assets will coexist in the long term. Digital assets are a major development trend, and there is a possibility of issuing stablecoins pegged to the offshore RMB in Hong Kong [14] 3. Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The report presents data on treasury bond futures trading on July 2, including contract prices, trading volumes, and positions. It also mentions the spread between different contracts and the trend of the main contracts [6] - Money Market: The report shows the changes in SHIBOR term structure, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged repo weighted interest rate, and silver - deposit inter - bank pledged repo rate [28][32] - Derivatives Market: The report includes the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixed - rate curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curve (mean) [34]
建信期货国债日报-20250703
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-07-03 01:29