建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20250703

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report On July 1, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission proposed to regulate low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises, which led to a rebound in the domestic commodity market. Currently, the supply - demand fundamentals of steel, coke, and coking coal markets have few contradictions, and low inventories are used as a narrative. However, if no specific measures are implemented in the short term, the market may return to the old logic of dealing with the uncertainty of production cuts. After the short - term market sentiment reaction, investors should rationally view the price - increase logic, avoid chasing high prices, and can wait for callback opportunities after the policy - driven price reaches the target level [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Futures Market: On July 2, the main contracts 2509 of coke and coking coal futures rose again. The coke 2509 contract reached a new high since May 20. The closing price of coke 2509 was 1442 yuan/ton, up 3.15%, with a trading volume of 30,166 lots and a position of 49,728 lots. The closing price of coking coal 2509 was 843.5 yuan/ton, up 3.18%, with a trading volume of 1,189,983 lots and a position of 529,227 lots, a decrease of 35,195 lots. The capital inflow of coke 2509 was 0.58 billion yuan, and the capital outflow of coking coal 2509 was 1.60 billion yuan [5]. - Spot Market: On July 2, the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1220 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Tangshan was 1195 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, while the prices in other regions remained unchanged [8]. 3.2 Technical Indicators On July 2, the daily KDJ indicator of the coke 2509 contract changed from a dead - cross to a golden - cross. The daily KDJ indicator of the coking coal 2509 contract showed a divergent trend, with the J and K values rising significantly, and the D value continuing to decline slightly, showing a trend of forming a golden - cross. The daily MACD red bars of both the coke and coking coal 2509 contracts became larger [8]. 3.3 Industry News - Policy News: On July 1, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized promoting the construction of a unified national market, regulating enterprise competition, and promoting the exit of backward production capacity. The China Cement Association issued a document to promote the high - quality development of the cement industry [10][11]. - Industry Operation: From January to May 2025, the operation of major steel - using industries was polarized. The construction industry continued to decline, while the manufacturing industry showed differentiation. The production and export of some industries such as new energy vehicles and washing machines increased, while the production of some industries such as real estate and refrigerators decreased [11]. - Enterprise Dynamics: Shaanxi Coal Industry completed 121% of the investment plan from January to May. The Naoliu Highway in Xinjiang is undergoing expansion and reconstruction, and its freight capacity will reach over 40 million tons after completion. Jinmei Group successfully issued a 2 - billion - yuan science and technology innovation bond. This year, the number of LNG ship deliveries is expected to reach a record high. In the first half of 2025, the container throughput of Shanghai Yangshan Deep - Water Port increased by 7.3% year - on - year. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports increased by 7% in June. The main line of the Trans - Guinea Railway was fully paved, and the Simandou project is expected to be put into production at the end of 2025. Russia plans to maintain its coal exports to China at about 100 million tons in 2025. Turkey's coal imports in May increased by 2.66% year - on - year [12][13]. 3.4 Data Overview The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the spot price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the national daily average pig iron output, the inventory of coke and coking coal in ports, steel mills, and coking plants, the profit per ton of independent coking plants, the production and start - up rate of coal washing plants, the inventory of raw coal and clean coal in coal washing plants, and the basis of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke and Linfen's low - sulfur main coking coal with the September contracts [15][19][23][26][27][30].