建信期货集运指数日报-20250703

Report Overview - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: July 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price increase at the end of June was better than expected, and the SCFIS settlement index rebounded above 2000 points. The 08 contract is expected to have some upside potential, while the 10th month, a traditional off - season, presents opportunities for short - selling and 08 - 10 positive spreads [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: At the end of June, the price increase was better than expected, with the SCFIS settlement index rising above 2000 points. In July, Maersk's mid - July quote was $2958, and the next week's quote was $2900. Other shipping companies' quotes were mostly in the range of $3300 - $3600, with a median of about $3400. CMA CGM and HPL reported August freight rates of $4745 and $3535 respectively [8]. - Futures Market: The 08 contract is expected to have upside potential due to improved market expectations, good cargo volume, and port congestion in Europe. For the 10th month, which is a traditional off - season, focus on short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spreads [8]. 3.2 Industry News - Geopolitical Event: Iran launched a missile attack on the US military's Al - Udeid Air Base in Qatar. International oil prices dropped by about 9%, and the US stock market rose [9]. - Shipping Market: From June 23 - 27, the overall Chinese export container shipping market was stable, with the comprehensive index slightly declining. The European route showed weak demand, while the Mediterranean route's freight rate decreased slightly, and the North American route's freight rate continued to fall [9][10]. 3.3 Data Overview - Spot Freight Rates: The SCFIS European route index increased by 9.6% to 2123.24 points, while the SCFIS US West route index decreased by 22.3% to 1619.19 points [15]. - Futures Market Data: For EC2508, the closing price was 1883.5, up 30.9 (1.67%); for EC2510, the closing price was 1367.9, down 0.9 (- 0.07%); for EC2512, the closing price was 1528.0, up 1.5 (0.10%); for EC2602, the closing price was 1325.2, down 6.0 (- 0.45%); for EC2604, the closing price was 1174.2, down 1.3 (- 0.11%); for EC2606, the closing price was 1310.0, down 3.6 (- 0.27%) [6].